An aerospace think tank says a shortage of Air Force fighter pilots is being compounded by a shortage of airplanes and threatens its combat readiness. The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies says the impact of the shortages is exacerbated by declining pilot experience, which is threatening pilot survivability as a whole. "The Air Force's pilot corps is now too small and poorly structured to sustain a healthy combat force that can prevail in a peer conflict and meet the nation's other national security requirements," the group says.
When the vast majority of young people who are interested in aviation would volunteer to be trained up as fighter pilots for free, I don’t think it’s a budget problem. If the Air Force cannot find willing candidates then it’s the Air Force itself that is refusing people to join.
I don’t think it’s a budget problem either because the services have making it rain $$$ on the pilot ranks for quite some time now. But I also don’t think it’s solely an Air Force recruiting problem. I believe it’s a culture problem and a lack of youthful willingness to serve. It’s one thing for a modern-day young person to be interested in aviation and it’s another for that interest to beget a multi-year commitment in service to their nation. It just isn’t there anymore.
I flew in the Air Force for 21 years. This problem is not new - its been years in the making.
Recruiting or finding young men and women to become fighter pilots is not the problem. The problem is RETAINING them once their commitment (currently around 11 years) is up. Those leaving are the most experienced instructors, which has an impact on “creating” new pilots. Do you put your most experienced instructors into combat zones where the country needs them, or do you keep them back home to train the next generation?
There are a variety of reasons they leave. Certainly the lucrative contracts the major airlines have secured is a huge pull. The government cannot compete with the pay and benefits of the airlines, even with huge retention bonuses.
But there is a huge push as well. Endless ancillary training, a promotion system that rewards style of substance, and an arbitrary physical fitness test that has no bearing on how well you do your job are just a few. Flying hours have been cut and support staff have been stripped away. Many of the day to day operations in the squadron once handled by civilian secretaries, admin, and payroll personnel have to relegated to the pilots themselves, all while ops tempos remain high. Pilots have become buried under “queep” when they should be out flying and honing their skills.
The Air Force needs to consider a two-track system. One for those who want to make rank and become Flag Officers and one for those who wish to stay in the cockpit and become masters of their craft. Those who choose the latter track would stay in the cockpit their entire career (no non-flying staff tours) but with limited promotion opportunities beyond O5 (Lt. Col).
Interesting point. However, free training in jet planes with guns cannot draw a even a few thousand modern-day young people these days? Inconceivable!.
I think you’re spot on! This business of “up or out” is ridiculous when you have those who just want to be the warriors in the cockpit. It also seems there are only a very few fighter slots with each class available and everyone else gets shuffled off to multi-engine.
@Arthur_Foyt, Again, there is no shortage of volunteers to fly jets. There is a shortage of instructors to train them, so the pipeline is slow. On the other end of the spectrum, the experienced pilots are leaving in greater numbers than we have the ability to train. The result is a shortfall. The Air Force has already shortened training requirements to keep their numbers up, but at the expense of quality. In my opinion, training shortcuts will have predictable results…
I know a former USAF pilot who graduated from a major state university and went on to Air Force OCS. He already had his private, instrument, and commercial (singles) obtained in the university aviation program.
At OCS he graduated in the top 5% and got his commission and choice of aircraft to fly after similarly excelling in primary pilot training. He chose the C-17 over the F-22 or F-15E or F-16 and everyone thought it was a dumb decision. His reason was simple: he knew he’d be getting a lot more flying hours in the transport side of the business and experience flying all over the globe in all kinds of conditions than with the fighter or bomber side.
Not everyone dreams of joining USAF aviation to turn and burn in a high performance fighter.
Many kids would want to be a “jet fighter pilot” if that opportunity is just given to them and that’s it. However, they in no way want to accept the rest to the military story that must go with it, commitment for the years, military life when not in the cockpit which will be frequent, discipline and all the rest. Although the discipline part might be on the way out if they get to follow the example of that new guy.
As others have opined, throwing more money into the existing system that is already not working will never solve the problem of recruitment and retention.
In addition to previous comments, once a well trained fighter pilot gets to his first duty squadron, they are confronted with the reality of daily operational readiness capabilities.The F-35 has never been capable of achieving more than 35% daily readiness. The more reliable F-22 has been out of production for years. F-15’s and F-16’s are 45-50 year old designs but the latest crop of variants are still largely old airframes continuously being modified with tech and weaponry that no longer is competitive with modern aerial warfare. Good…when it comes down to survivability … is not “good enough “. Recruitment promises supported by a narrative that the rest of the planet has not and will not ever be competitive or superior to US military aviation and US capabilities becomes glaringly false to those who now have the experience realities vs narrative hype.
Lastly, this story has another “think tank” connection measuring US Air Force capabilities or the lack thereof. That ‘s another influence that needs to go away. We are well past the point of peer fight readiness. It’s about time there is a frank, open discussion within the ranks of all branches of US military aviation without retribution bypassing the “think tank “ lobbies, discussing and debating the current procurement debacle, and true US military design, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities vs narrative hype. Either we handle it before we get involved in another war, or we will be forced by circumstances to deal with it on someone else’s time table. I am not optimistic we are actually capable internally of overcoming or coming close to taming this super expensive, highly inefficient, extremely corrupt, military procurement and subsequent manufacturing and support system for our current and next generation of veterans.
“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” “Deja Vu all over again.”
Funny how I saw and read about this same problem for the past 50 years. I flew F111’s, F4’s and F16’s in the 70’s and 80’s over a 30 year Air Force career. In my opinion, it always boils down to leadership. In my day, most generals were politicians rather than leaders. It appears that promotion to those ranks still depends on that quality. I was blessed to have Robin Olds as an example of the kind of pilot I wanted to be.
That’s because we don’t have the bandwidth to train fighter pilots. More slots out of SUPT (or whatever they are calling it today) would result in graduates sitting around for months and months waiting for their turn in ITU as their flying skills deteriorate.
Exactly. The Air Force still has an identity problem. None of the USAF’s “founding fathers” would stand a chance in today’s Air Force. Yeager’s squadron trashed a bar in an alcohol-related incident, Robin Olds sported an out-of-reg mustache, and LeMay’s bulging waste line would never survive today’s PT test. And he smoked (gasp). All of that aside, because cultural norms do change, the risks these individuals took in operational matters showed what taking calculated risks can accomplish. But there is no room for that in today’s “one mistake” Air Force. As a result, leaders are discouraged to innovate in a system that will not tolerate failure. Therefore, nothing seems to change, as PhantomsPhorever said. The only hope for the USAF is that airline hiring slows to a trickle, leaving military pilots no place to go.
“One mistake” does make for a very uncomfortable atmosphere. Yea…should behave and follow the rules. But youth sometimes needs a second chance. Friend of mine grandson in UPT doing great. But one foolish mistake, downtown drank one too many and got busted for a DUI while returning to base. That was it for him…out. Embarrassment for him to his many proud relatives, killed himself.
It’s not fighter jets, but I know of pilots in the USAF that have a 16 month delay between finishing their UPT and the scheduled start of training in their assigned aircraft type. These 16 months are filled with busy work and scut jobs.
The Army has the Warrant Officer program for pilots who just want a flying position without all the extra stuff required of a “normal” military career path. Does a pilot really need to get a MBA? The USAF might benefit from similar program. Not everyone wants to be General of the Air Force.
OMG I’m so sorry for the loss. I have to say, I’ve been a pilot for 56 yrs and the one thing that kept me from drinking and driving was knowing that if I got a DUI, the FAA would yank my license. It’s actually a pretty simple choice. If a pilot can’t separate those priorities, knowing the consequences, then maybe there other expectations they won’t follow also. It’s a matter of making choices and knowing the consequences.
What you did not mention are the pilot statistics. 600,000 pilots in the US; of which around 200,000 are ATP; and can fly nearly anything. So the think tank is ignoring the actual pilot population and their credentials; which makes the think tank look foolish. So, if the reward is there, trained pilots will flock to fighter pilot training. What salary would that be? Something better than an ATP; I presume.
I see TWO problems here. One, the personnel issue and the other the cockpit / equipment / training / BS extra jobs end for those who make the cut.
I spent 21 years enlisted in the USAF – most of it involved with flight test at Edwards AFB – and would have promised my right arm if I had a chance to fly. Early on. I earned all my ratings through the Aero Club system with VA help but didn’t have a degree. By the time I finished a degree, I was too old. There are lots of enlisted who are in similar situations. They’ve proven their adaptability to military life but there’s no path. Nowadays, the USAF DOES have a path for enlisted pilots to fly drones freeing up the rated drone pilots to fly real airplanes. Why not use that as an initial pathway to select some enlisted eligibles? The USAF has finally reestablished the Warrant Officer Corps, however, the number of billets and career areas do not include pilot slots … but ought to. Someone at the top – yeah, right … General Officer politicians in the Pentagon – ought to wake up and make a path for otherwise eligible enlisted to become Warrant officer pilots like in the Army. I’m certain that the personal part of the problem can be easily solved this way and by paying enough.
Chuck Yeager was initially a flying Sergeant without a degree, BTW …
As to the training slots / cockpits … who’s fault is that? Why can’t civilian training take care of the initial parts of that? Why can’t retired pilots man some of those training slots? There are ways to fix this whole mess but the people running MY USAF are myopic, IMHO. They’re too busy trying to kill the A-10A.
So here I sit with 54 years of flying experience wishing that I’da had a chance during my time and the USAF is sitting here with this dilemma. “What a sad state of affairs, Alice!”