Chinese Drone Ban Talk Boosts Archer, Joby Stocks

News Discussion
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Share prices for Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation jumped almost 20 percent late last week on news the U.S. government is considering banning Chinese-made drones. Archer and Joby are U.S.-based eVTOL developers who are both hoping to start selling their multi-copters in 2025 but they have little in common with the apparent focus of the Commerce Department rule making, which was announced on Jan. 3. The department is accepting public comments until March 4 on the proposed ban on drones used for everything from filmmaking to pipeline inspection. Most of them weigh 50 pounds or less but they do carry powerful sensors and high res cameras.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/chinese-drone-ban-talk-boosts-archer-joby-stocks
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The drone ban underscores a critical reality: China’s strategy of leveraging dual-purpose technology is deliberate and dangerous. Civilian innovations, like DJI’s affordable and widely used drones, serve as tools for potential espionage under the guise of “innovation”. These drones, often found near sensitive sites like military bases and energy infrastructure, illustrate the tangible security threat posed by China’s calculated approach. This isn’t speculation, China has spent decades turning civilian technology into strategic assets for economic, political, and military gain.

I’ve said this before: during the 1980s, American industry fueled China’s ascent by outsourcing production and sharing technology, aiming to cut costs and expand markets. What seemed like a smart move then has become a nightmare, as China’s industrial infrastructure has exploded into a global force. Civilian advancements, like electric aircraft, have been seamlessly integrated into military capabilities, giving China a strategic edge.

Now, the U.S. is scrambling to reclaim lost ground—rebuilding factories, supply chains, and technological leadership. While efforts are underway, the challenge is enormous, and time is not on our side. Believing China’s advances are purely civilian is dangerously naive.

As for “getting along” with China, the CCP? That would require the CCP abandoning its calculated strategy of domination, so don’t hold your breath.

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Raf, you are correct and on point. Corporate greed has exposed this nation and now we are trying to put the Genie back in the bottle. Easier said than done.

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I hope that US drone manufacturers can produce better quality aircraft if this ban goes through. I own a DJI drone and fly two different US-manufactured drones. DJI is so far ahead of its US competition in price, features, performance and quality that it’s going to take a very long time for US manufacturers to catch up - if they ever do. I don’t disagree that DJI and other Chinese drone manufacturers are likely providing information to the Chinese government. If we want to jump start the US drone industry in an attempt to catch up, we need to provide incentives and subsidies. US drone manufacturers are also going to need to drop prices if they expect to sell more drones in the US market. My DJI Phantom 4 Pro cost $1,500 and has been rock solid in reliability and performance for 7 years. I fly a US-made drone that has a base price of $19,000 that has numerous software and hardware glitches that make it too unreliable to fly on search and rescue missions. The Phantom 4 Pro has reliable object detection and avoidance capability while the US drone lacks any of those features.

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The aircraft developers are just riding PR, headed for a dotcom bust.

If NATO would give more help to Ukraine to defeat Putin soon there’d be a good source of small UAVs - Ukrainians are producing them in volume. Aided by Turkey for sizeable weaponed ones.

(So is Russia but they won’t be trustworthy for a while after Putin is defeated.)

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Reverse engineer a DJI and see why it is so reliable and affordable. Then some US company produce them by the thousands. Don’t we have some company that can do that??? Govt. step in with some incentive like I’m sure China does. If we can’t even play catch up by handing up a made in USA quality drone, then we’re screwed. X is doing it with rocket ships.

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Couldn’t have said it better a clear and present danger!

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So, we really don’t have any government entity that can take a random sampling of the Chinese-made drones that are out there, dissect them down to the transistors and bits to find the spy technology that’s supposedly beaming all this info back to the Motherland, and report their findings to the public?

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take a random sampling of the Chinese-made drones that are out there, dissect them down to the transistors and bits to find the spy technology

The problem is that it may not be possible at the moment. Any problem would more likely be in the software or firmware than the transistors, but it’s highly unlikely that the vast majority of these drones have any sort of spying capability, perhaps none of them at this point in time, since you could never make it 100% impossible to detect. Just like with telecom equipment, though, a lot of concern lies in what could be done or enabled by a future malicious software or firmware update if tensions increase between the countries. Over the past few decades China has transitioned from being a relatively minor threat to a full-on adversary. It’s generally not wise to have an adversary’s equipment in thousands of sensitive industrial and infrastructure locations in your country if it is software upgradable and modifyable.

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I have 1 question! If our intelligence can dissect these drones, can they determine if that are gathering and transmitting information that the user doesn’t know about?

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One final word on Chinese made tech: We become dependent on it and then during hostilities, they brick it, no spyware needed. We lose the use of everything, our washers, dryers, refrigerators, drones, phones, network gear, servers, storage and on and on.

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You can’t make this up. It might seem far-fetched that China could ever control the U.S. air traffic control (ATC) system, but privatization could open the door to serious risks. Through legal means, China could gain influence by investing in private operators, supplying critical technology, or financially backing companies in need. Our open market system, as it stands, practically invites such opportunities. As long as these laws remain unchanged, China will continue to tighten its grip on critical U.S. infrastructure. When those laws finally do tighten, the economic ties that currently act as a deterrent to conflict could break, leaving nothing to stop the slide toward real confrontation.

But maybe it’s already too late. For years, loopholes have been ignored, and warnings have gone unheeded. Security agencies like CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States), DHS (Department of Homeland Security), FBI, DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency), and NSA (National Security Agency), alongside think tanks like the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Hudson Institute, Heritage Foundation, and Brookings Institution, have been raising the alarm. Now the question isn’t if damage has been done but how much control we’ve already lost—and whether there’s still time to reclaim it.

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And there’s more.

Specific Precedent: U.S. Army Ban on DJI Drones (2017)

In 2017, the U.S. Army banned DJI drones across all military operations due to cyber vulnerabilities and concerns over unauthorized data transmission. The drones were found capable of collecting sensitive data—like flight paths and video footage—and transmitting it to servers outside the U.S., raising fears of espionage. The Department of Homeland Security later confirmed these risks, warning that Chinese-made drones were sending data back to China.

How DJI Drones Transmit Data

  1. Wi-Fi or Cellular Connections: Real-time data transfer over networks.
  2. Encrypted Channels: Mask unauthorized transmissions.
  3. Delayed Uploads: Store data locally, upload later.
  4. Cloud Sync: Syncs flight logs and footage, potentially routing to Chinese servers.
  5. Telemetry & Metadata: Transmits GPS locations and altitudes.
  6. Bluetooth Transfers: Connects to nearby devices for local network access.

The Risks

These drones make it alarmingly easy to transmit sensitive data without user awareness. As one soldier joked, “Keep it up, and the next thing we’ll see is our ops streaming on TikTok.” It’s funny—until it isn’t.

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The only problem with the USA making drones of equal capability AND cost is that American assembly workers make a living wage. Chinese assembly workers do not. We will never get the US public to buy American made consumer products because they can’t, or wont, spend that kind of money that pays for the US workers.

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This is the issue. I am looking for a new drone and DJI is so far ahead there really is no other rational choice at the consumer level. I have to suspect Chinese government subsidies on a large scale for them to be so much better so consistently.

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Andrew M:

Cheap labour traditionally, efficiency of volume production.

Perhaps Chinese Communist government is a customer, to spy on residents.

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Indication of who Reply is to has stopped appearing.

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It’s all about economics. The market demand is already in place. The supply side is the problem.

The few US drone companies that exist can’t compete with Chinese drones on price, features and reliability. There’s no economic incentive for US companies to reverse engineer Chinese drones and it’s not as easy as it sounds. The US doesn’t manufacture most of the large scale integrated circuits used in Chinese drones so that’s a big stumbling block. US labor prices are sky high compared to dirt cheap wages in China. The Chinese government is surely subsidizing their drone industry while the US isn’t doing that.

If we shut off the supply of Chinese drones now, it will only slow down the entire US effort to become competitive because demand will dry up. No one is going to buy a US drone for $19,000 for recreation, which is the largest demand factor.

Rather than shutting off the supply of Chinese drones, I would impose tariffs on them and give US companies big tax breaks based on the number of drones that they sell in the US. The more drones they sell in the US, the lower their taxes would be. That would give them an incentive to lower prices, improve features and reliability.

Tariffs aren’t the answer to all trade problems but this is an area where tariffs would help. We don’t sell any drones in China so it wouldn’t affect our sales if they retaliate with their own tariffs.

Government subsidies and tax breaks for those who buy US made drones would also help. That’s what we did for ADS-B. I bought my ADS-B transponder partly with a FAA rebate. Subsidizing the drone making companies is less direct than subsidizing buyers. You can’t be sure that corporate subsidies will have the desired effect on increased sales since there are so many factors at play.

Lastly, US drone manufacturers need to hire truly talented hardware and software engineers and pay them accordingly. Right now we pay CEOs and senior managers a lot more than most engineers. I think that gets it backward. Look at Boeing’s problems for doing that for the last decade.

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By their fruits, you shall know them. US “fruit”? 800+ military bases worldwide. China/Russia “fruit”? 3 combined outside of their territorial boundaries. Whose “fruit “ demonstrates global, empire expansionism? Does China want to expand its boundaries, manage more global population and cultures? No.They want to do business with global customers thus improving their economy for their citizens. Does Russia want to “rule” the world? No, they want to do business with equality and respect with all nations. How do we in the west know that? BRICS! US “fruit”? Destabilizing governments internally to force regime change by internal revolution, then install pro-US puppets whose governments are subsidized by US tax payers through money laundering corruption, allowing the US to plunder all of their resources. All in the name of “democracy” and “human rights”. Examples: Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Georgia, Cheznya, Romania, Germany, Iran, Afghanistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Moldova, Ukraine, Austria, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Haiti, Venezuela…to name a few. The US Empire currently controls their resources and governments through orchestrated internal chaos, control of their economies via US corporations/banks, drug and human trafficking, or outright war. This is the combined West’s modus operendi for decades, especially after WWII. To accomplish all this, you have to keep the US citizens ignorant of all this by absolute control of the press. You replace historical facts with government narratives. Tell a lie long enough and loud enough it will be perceived as truth. The countries on the receiving end of the US Empire’s ambitions and resulting long term plunder under “democracy” and “human rights” narratives now have alternatives to this long term colonial exploitation… called BRICS. They know what war within their country looks and feels like. Individually and collectively, they are beginning to fight back. The US Empire know no other way of diplomacy other than “peace through strength”. But the US Empire does not have the military and financial muscle to manage/exploit all of these “colonies “. So, the US has to have enemies defined by false narratives to continuously placate the US citizen’s, robbing us of our money, destroying domestic tranquility, and causing global prejudices to keep this facade going. That’s democracy? No… that’s propaganda. We as a society, are going to hell and actually looking forward to the trip. Now that’s a very effective narrative. Do you think the “solution” is more massive tarrifs, more war, more isolation, more Chinese and Russian phobias, and global economic sanctions? How do you think that is working out in your region of the country so far? Or, should we cease being the global bully and focus our energy on lifting up our society, our manufacturing, our economy through honesty, integrity, innovation, and hard work?