Since 2010 the CDC says 252,000 people died of the flu in the US. The lowest deaths per year was 12,000 in 2011-12 and the highest was 61,000 in 2017-18. So far, the CDC has estimated 12,000 to have died in the US of the flu from 10/2019 to 2/1/20. Covid-19 is a strain of the flu.
The mortality rate for the Spanish Flu of 1918 was 2.4% of those infected which resulted in over 50 million deaths globally over two years. According to the CDC common yearly flu has averaged .14% mortality rates of those infected. So far Covid-19 has had an average of .20% mortality rate of those infected, slightly higher than the average past mortality rate. However, no one is exactly sure how many are infected as many have no or very little symptoms. Many suffer normal flu-like symptoms with out calling a doctor for Covid-19 confirmation.
Since Covid-19 is a new strain, the pharma companies have not been able to concoct a vaccine. Vaccines do not have a 100% guarantee that they prevent the flu. So, we now have a “mystery” virus which makes this strain ripe for massive speculation. Add the social media, internet, and proliferation of keyboard experts and blog posts, the planet has been saturated with misinformation, information, urban myth, and somewhere in the middle of all this, useful facts. But most want someone else to sort all this out and tell them what to do. Many governments have willingly obliged to that desire.
So now, we are hearing the politically correct mantra that in the effort to protect us from ourselves, it is better to error on the side of safety by closing traditionally large gatherings of humanity. Dublin, Ireland has cancelled their traditional St. Patrick’s Day celebration. That will be the politically correct position until the politicians, local communities, states, and countries feel the financial strain ( no pun intended) of lost revenue due to these closings.
Airliners are high flying, aluminum and now composite, disease petri dishes. They always have been flying science projects. Cruise ships are floating versions of sickness science projects. Trams, trains, subways, and buses are equal opportunity sickness providers. UBER has added an additional mystery opportunity by offering rides in cars ( which themselves are highly capable of infection) operated by even more folks of unknown pedigree, national origin, past travel history, etc. Shopping malls, truck stops, airports, restaurants, bars,etc are ripe for disease opportunities…and always have been.
The only way to avoid getting sick from one or all of these forms of travel, large gatherings, and lifestyle choices is to not participate, stay at home, no work, no play, and develop some sort of household quarantine. What is unique in this situation is the opportunity for mass hysteria because of instant access to anyone and everyone’s connected sneezes. This makes it an ideal opportunity to affect global finances in an previously unprecedented way.
Now, we are faced with serious personal decisions regarding when, where, and how we go to future aviation events. Those choices will have a huge affect on aviation business, local, regional, and national economies. I have participated as an exhibitor at many of these aviation events and the cost of participation is not something to be taken lightly. In many cases money has been spent well in advance of these events making cancellations costly with a likelihood of no reimbursement. Then is dealing with the domino affect that will inevitably happen as a result of Aero 2020/Friedrichshafen rescheduling or eventual cancellation.
These decisions are not light, clear cut, nor without some risk. The question is, how much increased risk are we potentially exposed to in relation to normal life. While we all have opinions, and it is easy to postulate from our collective computers exercising keyboard courage, at some point, everyone of us aviation nuts will have to weigh all this information and misinformation and make a decision to participate or not in traditional aviation events we have grown accustom attending. Likewise, it will be a tough decision for exhibitors who are counting on our attendance. For me, I will be attending.
It should be a very interesting business year for aviation. This Covid-19 flu may very well be a mortal wound for many aviation companies if their business depends on good attendance figures at these respective shows. Airlines are already sitting in a very precarious position with some folding. Many, many aviation businesses count on us aviation consumers at these traditional events.
Aviation is not a business or hobby that easily translates to internet sales. The 3D world is unique with most of us wanting an opportunity to see in person, the company, products, and services that we depend on when we strap in, start up, and launch into the “wild blue”. We want to feel or size up these people, products and services in person. Flying is very personal. Flying and associated aviation as a whole is a unique shared passion that no other endeavor is quite like. It is an acquired taste which cannot be exactly duplicated or substituted. That is why we want to commiserate with like minded, equally infected ( again no pun intended) others because it is so special. Oshkosh for example probably has the largest percentage of active pilots in the world attending. Considering how few pilots are in relationship to the US population or especially the global population, Oshkosh has demographics unique to just about any other job, passion, recreation, or hobby in its ability to gather those who are globally active. And those attendees are the one’s spending their hard earned money on aviation products and services. These are not folks content to satisfy their aviation urges sitting in front of a computer screen. Virtual reality is not a replacement for real flying. Soon, it will be decision time for all of us.
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