I believe Terrafugia indeed perform market research resulting in many people interested in a flying car. Most people in the US do not fly, cannot envision themselves as pilots, have no intension of becoming a pilot, let alone an aircraft owner. But when asked about a flying car, the response is usually positive. People can relate to a car far better than an airplane. That question implies, I believe, the flying portion would be car like regarding training and everyday utility.
The EAA Young Eagles program has been an outstanding success in directly exposing over 2 million young people to flight in a GA airplane. Likewise, millions of parents have been indirectly exposed to GA aircraft through their child’s participation including the possibility, they too can become pilots. So, somewhere between 2-4 million people have had better than average direct/indirect exposure to GA flying. Many great stories have emerged from the Young Eagles program detailing the climb to professional flying careers. However, the percentage is very small of aviation careers in relationship to the exposure. It would be interesting to see what that actual percentage of aviation careers that have resulted from the Young Eagles program from the 2 million plus flights given and combined exposure to flying by those 2-4 million people.
Having said that, in my opinion, Terrafugia did not do their market research regarding how long, costly, and protracted the process is in getting FAA certification. Over time, those of us who have become pilots and aircraft owners, including those who have built their own airplanes, have gotten used to the endless, useless and utterly ridiculous claims that they will be the one to design, build, test, certify, and deliver airplanes in a matter of a couple of years or so. Terrafugia was one of them getting flying a prototype March 2009 only three years after inception. Twelve years later, the got an S-LSA approval…and that’s all. Epic learned the hard way the same thing on a far more conventional design with a previous track record of some minor success in a kit-built version. Epic survived with Russian investment.
Epic, Terrafugia, Icon, Fury, and SkyCatcher come to mind as cool ideas that had enough PR to get pilot interests up enough to place deposits further bolstering the market research demonstrating interest. Maybe this will be the airplane that will break the certification logjam that inevitably eats up all the cash reserves these company’s might have had in the beginning. Then we hear the on and off stories of investment needed as they struggle to keep the dream alive. Think about Icon, EPS, and Deltahawk.
China is no dummy. This aviation business and development pattern is so clear, well demonstrated, and predictable. So, it is easy to get fantastic innovation, even to the point of production capability in the case of Cirrus and Continental, buying very mature aviation endeavors at bargain prices. Those overseas sales of American aviation assets are quickly followed by glowing press reports by the still employed US company management how selling to overseas companies is preserving US jobs and adding to the economy. But I believe this kind of foreign investment, particularly from China and Russia in struggling aviation companies opens the door to Chinese/Russian influence in areas far beyond the company itself. And that influence is far more valuable than the company ROI itself. The USA does likewise, investing in all sorts of countries and businesses gaining much influence internally. So, this is not the bad guys vs the good guys. This is global finance which includes global politics. And we get our ruffled feathers soothed by words of being partners in a global community.