Cameron…by the time a successful electric, “green” VTOL is developed, collectively, there will be billions of dollars spent. I am convinced none of them will be close to a 1/4 scale, proof of concept model as demonstrated by Kittyhawk in the video.
Most technology regarding prototype work specifically in aviation rarely has much similarity to the finished product. Why? Because certification of anything that will be termed disruptive technology may burst onto the scene with glowing optimism regarding all its virtues…but cannot bypass the FAA certification standards. Those standards are purposefully designed to have enough safety via redundancy built in to make sure any new design, disruptive or not, to be evolutionary proven before someone within the FAA will sign off.
Its one thing to deliver food, medicine, even an organ or two with a scaled up drone within line of sight criteria traveling a relatively short distance. But when it comes to lifting several passengers on a windy, cold, Black Friday afternoon at the Daly Plaza in Chicago wisking them off to the Magnificent Mile to bypass all of the masses of Chicago shoppers , under O’Hare and Midway Class B airspace, it will take additional billions of dollars to have a VTOL infrastructure designed and proven already in place to accept Kittyhawk with swept forward wing and silent but plentiful motors.
If it is tough or impossible today to wedge a two place R44 into a downtown scenario, it will be far worse to have a VTOL vehicle two to three times the size of an R44 to do likewise. Buildings, power-lines, elevated trains, light poles, buses, taxis, and roof mounted air conditioners in a raw environment such as downtown Chicago with all the lake effect weather, and saturated airspace will not easily nor cheaply be re-designed for VTOL vehicle insertion.
Mayer Daly managed to get Meigs Field bulldozed at 3AM because his wife wanted a park instead of a functioning airport asset Meigs once was. This kind of aviation PC is another gauntlet the VTOL crowd will have to expensively wade through…city by crowded city, whose politicians always have their collective hands out. That, like the FAA, has not and is not easily changed.
One may be a wizard in disruptive technology, be far ahead of someone like me in mechanical/software design already holding on to the secret sauce of the best battery technology, artificial intelligence, and 3D printed Kittyhawks of the future, today. But all of this has not solved the problem of getting it through the FAA certification process…who will probably suggest it does pass the basketball test…among other things.
Authoritative? Naw…just the reality of the above. When the city, state, and national political system, the hearts of the non-aviation savvy public, and the FAA certification system change to handle the technology of today and the future regarding urban flight, VTOL or otherwise, with an infrastructure properly set up to deal with all of this…then I might change my “authoritative” position. Until then, I am not optimistic.