I'm going to miss the internal combustion engine. Ease up climate change deniers. I'm not discussing that. I'm simply reporting the facts and the fact is that for all intents and purposes the technology that propelled we Boomers through just about every significant moment of our lives will eventually be replaced by a soulless stator and armature.
Russ-
When you are in the vineyards cultivating…you need to cultivate the flavor of the grapes a little less, I have for you 2 words: ENERGY DENSITY. The inventor who will stumble upon a “new” battery technology that will allow your dream to…bear fruit (LOL) has not been born yet.
John Caulkins
All you have to do is look at the source required to keep all of these batteries charged. I would like to be convinced, I really would, but, I’m not. Energy is not free, it has to come from somewhere. How many batteries and how many chargers do you have scattered around your garage Russ. Batteries, chargers and electric cords now grow like weeds taking over entire work benches and requiring their own dedicated charging tables. Then there is the what do you do with them when they’re wasted. Some last quite a long time, some less than a year. Disposal of lithium batteries and accessories is now an industry. There is no panacea, only trade offs.
I too like the idea of zero mass loss propulsion systems. However, like the prior two commenters indicated, we’re just not there yet. Working at the University of Michigan in the engineering department I finally heard a professor (who is working on next generation batteries) admit that EV’s are THE dirtiest form of transportation we have today. When considering trades, we need to consider not just the vehicle, but the whole process of getting the vehicle into the hands of owner/operators and maintaining them. EVs have a niche for short hops with long stops. But don’t forget the infrastructure. Want to go somewhere new, well that won’t work. So the utility drops precipitately. I don’t own oil company stock, but that technology is very mature and we long ago paid for the infrastructure.
So, we need the novice, hobby, and experimental EV people to press on! Investments in power sources too. But, until we can have the utility of a can of gas, taken wherever we go to get us back, it’s internal combustion for the vast majority of us.
Joby, following Lilium and dozens of other bankrupt battery Rube Goldbergs in its rapid decline: “Why Joby Aviation Stock Is Losing Altitude Today”, October 2024, Motley Fool. Russ, you still have a two-stroke chainsaw? You must be kidding! As with lawn mowers, weed wackers, boat motors, snow mobiles, etc. these all switched to efficient four-stroke motors decades ago. And not to “save the planet” from the non-existent climate crisis, but because they are cheaper and simpler to operate and maintain.
From Russ
Four-stroke chainsaws and weed whackers are available but most use two-stroke engines. I bought mine years ago. Please keep the irrelevant politics out of your posts, Kent.
To answer the title question, a resounding “NO!” Might that day eventually come? Yes, but as stated by others, we don’t have even a hint of the necessary technology.
The revolution is coming and I welcome it. I am on my 4th electric car and I would never go back to ICE. I almost put a deposit on a Bye Aerospace eFlyer 4 but I came to my senses and realized their 2025 projected delivery was likely a fantasy. Still, that airplane - or one like it - is coming. As the engineers point out, energy density is a problem but it is slowly improving. This week, I’ve got to go out to my cold hangar and change the engine oil in my old-timey fossil fuel burning Continental. I long for the day I’ll never have to do that again. The electric future can’t come fast enough for me.
It’s a brave blog you’ve written here Russ. Thank you for risking the blowback you knew would come your direction.
Speaking of chainsaws, the owner of a successful company once told me that he also owned a King Air and Bonanza. He let qualified company employees fly the King Air but not the Bonanza, saying that there were two things in life he did not loan out - his Bonanza and his chainsaw.
By way, what do you tow with your '95? I tow a 21 foot fiberglass product made in Chilliwack.
There may come the day when there is a magical flying unicorn, but that day has not arrived.
I’d welcome a simple and easier to maintain power plant in my plane and car. However I don’t think we will see it in our lifetime at least with the capabilities that we have for our cross country planes. The ambitious projections have proven to be false and barring an amazing breakthrough, will likely continue that way for the foreseeable future
Some folks are sold on eVTOLs as the future of aviation—quieter, cheaper, better. Sounds great in theory, but: batteries are anchors, range is laughable, and hype won’t get you off the ground, let alone keep you there! 
While we may be seeing public acceptance of the electric aircraft concept due to the flood of startup efforts, until someone can actually demonstrate an existing aviation niche being filled by an electric on a practical basis, I find it hard to see any sort of real breakout. Right now, the thinking is we can do it by creating a new aviation niche that can work within the limitations electric imposes, but that niche comes with its own problems of acceptance.
The high voltages and large currents to power the electric motors, not to mention large batteries, scare me. The inflight electrical fires will be spectacular. The energy density problem will severely limit the range and utility of these things. And quite frankly, I think the ICE engines are better for the environment, considering the disposal of batteries and the the mining of considerable minerals to make those batteries.
From Russ:
Not debating climate change, Dennis
I’m a big fan of my electric landscaping tools & aviation innovation but the Joby photo in this article just looks totally wacked to me. Even the folks back in the distant past figured out that one gas- fired engine was easier to operate & maintain than a team of six horses tied to their wagons.
There have been two potential powerplant game changers that I can remember. From the 1960s through the 1980s, the Wankel engine was supposed to replace the piston engine. Lighter, more compact, few moving parts, cheaper to manufacture, the auto companies all took out licenses and spend billions developing them. John Deere (yes, the tractor people) spent millions on aviation specific Wankels. In the end, the advantages didn’t outweigh the disadvantages. The second was a small turboprop. Millions spent again on ceramic turbine wheels etc. but the problem was still expense and internal aerodynamic scaling issues. So I’m not holding my breath for electric airplanes, except maybe training and other short hop, long wait applications. Energy density is the limiting factor. Oh, and Kent, I’ll counter your comment about Canada becoming the 51st state by offering you to become Canada’s 11 th province. Or maybe Canada’s third territory.
I believe that Electric Aviation is coming and I look forward to it. The same questions remain however, specifically what happens to the energy supply grid when everybody in North America comes home late in the afternoon and plugs their cars and airplanes in at the same time. Huge investments in energy generation capacity would be needed. But again, energy density is a key factor. I would anticipate it could be a few generations before we see 15 hour nonstop flights in an electric A380 or 787, if ever.
As for the US becoming Canada’s 11th province,…absorbing most of the states into several new provinces would probably be the better way to go. Keep California and Texas to create another rivalry similar to the Calgary/Edmonton and Ontario/Quebec/Alberta dynamics. Combine a few others, then spin the rest off under President Musk and Vice President Trump…
Fifteen additional provinces sounds about right…
I will also thank Russ for taking on this subject. I also have an electric car and will probably never again buy a vehicle with an IC engine. I also have a collection of Milwaukee battery powered tools including a chain saw along with a battery electric lawn mower. My Chevy Bolt has over 95,000 miles and the only maintenance other than tires and windshield wiper fluid has been to replace the rear wiper blade. It costs me less than 3 cents a mile for energy.
My company (I am retired but was one of the founders and still own a considerable share of the company) manufactures a battery electric high tech agricultural machine. I also advise student at the local university building a battery powered race car (FormulaSAE Electric). Our motor weighs about 17lbs and put out 80 hp with a peak efficiency of 98%. I also consulted for a motor design project sponsored by DARPA and NASA (probably for drones but I did not ask). Anyway, I follow battery and motor technology. We are about to have commercial Lithium Sulfur batteries from several companies. These have considerably higher energy density than the best contemporary lithium-ion batteries along with a lower cost and faster charge rate. We may also have Iron Nitride magnets that do not require “rare” earth elements.
Anyway, I firmly believe that we will have commercial electric flight and not just because it is “greener” and quieter but because will be less expensive and more reliable. I think that Joby will probably be successful and maybe Archer and Beta. I also expect that, eventually, we will have 737-sized electric aircraft capable of flying at least 1000 miles. And just like in a number of other endeavors, there will be a shakeout where a number of companies will fail. Just look at the number of car companies in early 1900s.
There was an article recently which referenced the Oct. 9, 1903 New York Times published editorial, “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly”. This was shortly after Samuel Pierpoint Langley’s flyling machine crashed into the Potomac. They predicted that manned flight would take between one and 10 million years to achieve. Nine weeks later, on Dec. 17, 1903, the Wright Brothers achieved what many thought was impossible. I will leave a link to the article in a separate post…
Link to article:
The “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly” story is yet another strong historical proof that the mainstream media (MSM) should not be trusted blindly. The disinformation spread by the MSM therefore has a strong historical background.