Getting out of the way of a dangerous hurricane seems like a no-brainer, but it can be a nuanced, nerve-racking decision tree. As Ian bore down on the west coast of Florida Tuesday, it proved simpler for me than in the past. In 2017, we bugged out for Irma and I swore I’d never do it again. The traffic on I-75, the principle north-south route out of Florida’s west coast, moved at 20 MPH for several hundred miles, if it moved at all. It was tense. Gas was in short, difficult supply.
On the personal level, I’m of course, glad to hear that your fared well during this disaster. On a social level, however, it appears that the criteria being used to assess the threat of weather disasters is inadequate.
Paul, you have hit the nail squarely on the head. The biggest problem is that there are too many people crowding onto an isthmus that seems to be a magnet for hurricanes. And unfortunately, land developers and building contractors are willing to build and sell houses in areas where none should be built, and built to inadequate standards for the storms they face. The bad news is that Florida is not alone in that regard. The entire Gulf Coast is being lined with houses and resort properties catering to northerners who have no idea of the power of a cat 4 storm. Florida’s other problem is that, being al long narrow isthmus, there are very few roadways, and they are totally inadequate to handle a mass evacuation. A storm the size of Ian is large enough to envelop the entire state, so there are few safe havens to ride out a big storm by staying put. In a perfect world, government officials and developers/contractors would work out coherent rules about where and what to build. Unfortunately, we don’t live in anything approaching a perfect world. Keep that evacuation plan sharp and ready to go.
The aerial photo of the Venice airport illustrates two important issues. First, as you said, the damaged hangars were the older units, while the newer ones did much better. Second, the most damage was suffered by the hangars at the end of the row. Wind, like any stress, concentrates at the edge of a solid. Historically, damage to rows of buildings like hangars is always greatest at the ends where the roof uplift is greatest. One thing I did find interesting was that there appears to be little damage to the open sunshade hangars, as you called them. With only a roof and no sides, the uplift pressure on that roof is much higher than an enclosed structure. I wonder what damage was suffered to planes below that roof. Your comment about the wind direction is also very important. As you point out, a variation of just a degree or two in the path could make a huge difference with regard to storm surge and wave action. Venice was on the clean side as we call it, where the water is driven away from the land and the wind velocity is less due to the fact that land causes surface friction. Venice was lucky this time. When hurricane Ike hit the city of Houston in 2008, the eye of the storm went up the ship channel and over downtown. As a result, the east side of the city suffered most of the damage, especially from the storm surge. The west side of town had mostly downed trees and power lines. No coastal flooding and very little storm surge.
Funny you should say that. A couple of years ago, a couple of friends and I were sitting in a local hangar, sliding doors partly open, welcoming the oncoming summer storm and its cool air. As the cell crossed the field, we got ourselves treated to a microburst. It instantly took the sliding doors off their rails and one would have destroyed my friend’s 20-years-in-the-construction Lancair had he not stood there imitating Atlas, holding it off. The rest of us beat feet to the rear of the hangar, but with the doors now gone, the wind took the entire roof off and deposited it in pieces on the nearby golf course. In less than ten seconds it was over. After the cell blew the rest of the way across the field and the sun came out, we assessed the damage. We were drowned rats but otherwise unharmed. Two other hangars on the field, one with a bifold door and one with a hydraulic door, were also completely intact. A 150, tied we later discovered with a kid’s jump rope, tumbled about a hundred yards and was a total loss.
> Real estate values and volume are totally out of balance with the ability to insure it against almost certain loss…
The only reason people can afford to structure insurance in Florida is because government subsidies obscure the true risk. Every time a storm like this destroys property we all pay for it, either through higher insurance premiums, higher taxes, or both. How many people would build in these areas if insurance costs reflected the true risk?
Glad you & yours came through OK, Paul. Obviously Kelly Leggette has an aviation connection, but is this also the case with the other folks mentioned in your italicized addendum? The reason I ask is that it’s so common for people in the aviation world to supply generosity when needed, for just about any reason you could think of.
The sunshade hangars were built around 2010, I think. They were built to a higher standard than the older structures. My impression is they have heavier steel (that’s not corroded) and the purlins my be on closer centers. I’m not surprised it survived.
When I get on the ground, we’ll see if there’s any missile damage to the aircraft underneath. During Charley, the airplanes at Punta Gorda were exposed to 140 MPH gusts which will turn anything into a damaging missile. They showed it, too. Dents and scars everywhere on some of them. A Tomahawk had its tail twisted entirely off and it remained attached only by the control cables. A 210 had the ailerons turned to confetti, probably by flutter. That airplane may have been totaled.
I had a similar experience in our hangar, but I got the slider closed before it de-tracked. But for three or four minutes from inside the hangar, I watched it rattle and lift in the track. The AWOS had the gusts around 40 MPH. A mere fresh breeze.
Yes. Kelly is retired Air Force and Delta, Jeremy is active Delta, Todd operates Aircraft Merchants and Henry Lowe owns the FBO business at Macon and has for many years.
“…steel (that’s not corroded)”… Ah, there’s the rub. I have lived in the comparatively DRY and NON=Saline climates of the western mountains most of my life. During my increasingly frequent visits to that sweltering, acid filled place you call “Florida” I’ve been VERY, VERY impressed with how rapidly steel structures corrode. Hangars with not all that many years standing, hydroswing or bifold doors, steel construction, thick concrete pads, and TREATED steel structure show corrosion where the darn things are fastened to the cement pad! That big cement/rebar constructed condo on the coast that crumbled and collapsed a few short years ago is an abject lesson for us all… Florida’s climate will triumph over engineering. All it takes is not-all-that-much TIME and EXPOSURE. Your Rapsody about new codes overlooked that fatal flaw that is, at best, not a permanent fix to the evil stew where you and millions of others reside.
“… How many people would build in these areas if insurance costs reflected the true risk?”
Great observation. FWIW, it ain’t too much different from people building on the slopes of active volcanoes (like Mt. St Helens or Mt. Rainer in Washington (State) or in places (with actual topographic relief) at the foot of slumps, in flood plains, or on unconsolidated regolith (dirt) that is at an unsustainable angle of repose… i.e. likely to slide into the valley below with an otherwise survivable ‘shake’ from a moderate or light quake.
Isn’t one purpose of Government (State or Federal) to protect us from our own foolishness???
If people were logical, the only organisms in Florida would be alligators and manatees. On the other hand, if people were logical, we wouldn’t be flying small airplanes.
This kind of goes back to Paul’s article about wearing a helmet while flying. If you wore a helmet, would you take more risks? If you have insurance, why not rebuild?
Yeah, I expect that there will be some changes in insurance; the old saw is that if you want more of a behavior you subsidize it, if you want less, you tax it.
Coastal insurance isn’t cheap now, but it’s the cheapest it will ever be.