Latitude.
My mental dyslexia is showing again, thanks.
China’s bubble about to burst? That is he question!
I live in Germany right now, am a pilot with a US license and have worked in the US GA industry for 17 1/2 years (1999-2016). I am very grateful for the time and the opportunities that the US offered to me. Paul’s article is very interesting, as it evaluates an effect of what is going on globally right now. Please forgive me if you think I am off topic and please follow my train of thought to the end. This is about the big picture and the future of all of us and the love for aviation that we all share.
I like to simplify things by using the mathematical approach to extrapolate equation factors (causes) to limits. With the current lockdowns here in Europe it is obvious that the C is only a means to achieve a certain goal. This goal is to completely ruin the economy to do a “reset” as part of the global reset and with the current Gvmt overhead here in Germany, it is clear that they will simply let all companies run into bankruptcy. They even have suspended the companies from having to file chapter 11, when it is clear that it is over, just to not let the economy and statistics reveal how bad the economy is suffering. That on it’s own is a criminal act by the Gvmt. This is where the global companies or their subsidiaries will come in to buy all the assets. All the rest of the people are already depleted from their resources as many are already right now. Where does this leave us as individuals especially the companies as in the aviation industry?
I’d like to exemplify the limits with the history of Germany after the second WW.
After WWII in Germany everything was shattered to ruins. This was an economic reset in just about every way possible. Yet the German people were able to build it up again and become one of the most prosperous economies in Europe. Most of it was created by the hard labor of the people contributing their energy and creativity for the advancement of the community. It all started with a small overhead Gvmt at the beginning. Now it has grown to a self-serving behemoth (the German swamp similar to the US swamp) that does not care about the human rights and is serving interests of whoever stands behind the global companies represented by lobbyists at the Gvmt and their interests to own it ALL and “enslave” all the common people. Think about it.
The US is in a similar place, except that the current POTUS has, at the beginning of his term, declared exactly what he wants to do and has taken a lot of actions to keep his promise. The US and the POTUS is seemingly standing alone right now. Though in Spirit this is not the case.
I remember exactly the time, when the current POTUS agreed to run as the next president. From that moment on there was an international MSM "Sh*t-storm that was poured upon him and that has continued to this day. Thanks to alternative media and patriots around the world there is resistance and awakening happening that woke people are working on to spread the word on what is really going on. I remember vividly how my relatives and friends from Germany and Europe were asking me how the US would ever consider him as a president. Hindsight is always 20/20 and now it is clear to me as the Swamp in the US is revealing lots of evidence that is affecting the whole world as well.
In my view this is very simple. If we the people snooze on this global event, we will all loose everything if the final wealth transfer happens, including GA and all the rights that the US was built upon. In other words “NO MORE GA!” This will affect the whole world and so my prayers are going out to you guys and the current POTUS with the patriots lined up and joined around him. There are still many most likely the majority of the people who are still sleeping and continuously being brainwashed by believing in the MSM.
Again, I apologize for going off topic to some degree here. I am very grateful for having met many aviators both GA and Military while working in the US. God bless America. You all are part of it as it is part of the world. Thanks for reading.
After re-reading Paul’s blog a few times, including the considerable comments…the word capitalism came up over and over again. It seems the word capitalism has morphed into a definition far removed from it’s original use and incorporation into everyday conversation. Sort of like the word “cool”.
At one time cool defined a relative temperature. It morphed from street slang of the beatniks into mainstream use which occasionally defines relative temperature but also includes it’s use describing favorable acceptance of a person, place, or thing. Hip used to describe a body part. Now it is additionally used as a description of person, place or thing that is “cool”. I believe that process of language degradation includes the word capitalism.
Like the words “cool” and “hip”, capitalism means so many different things to so many different people, it is now very hard to define. Since we have freedom to form our own political, moral, and cultural worldviews/opinions, we tend to use capitalism, its pitfalls and highpoints depending largely on our personal definition. So, what is capitalism? I am not sure that I really know what it is anymore.
In the blog, including some comments intertwine the stock market, which is the driver or basis of most investment opportunities, establishing the resulting profit gained from market investment is the bottom line and final determining factor in all business decisions. We are approaching a stock market record of 30,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an indicator of how 30 large, U.S.-listed companies have traded during a standard trading session. And the Dow seems to be the gold standard for so many to support the word capitalism.
So, according to many of the commentators, mainstream media, politicians, and most people who have money invested in their 401K’s including the definition of the S&P, our measure of economic success is how well the company is being traded on the stock market. If that is what pure capitalism is about, as a country, the US is a resounding economic success. It does not matter where a product is produced. Nor does it matter who produces it. All that matters is the companies we invest in, produces an ever escalating share price.
And if one’s 401K is expanding regularly each quarter, who is going to bitch about Cirrus Aircraft being owned by the Chinese military, or complain that Boeing’s quality control needs a revamp? If the 401K is doing well, the S&P is off the charts, pay no attention to the pandemic economic issues, still high national unemployment, aviation companies in stagnation, 400 MAX’s still dormant, domestic airline load factors under 20%, 250,000 and climbing additional dead folks, Covid-19 infection rates off the charts, a disputed election, with a national debt that is so large, we cannot wrap our minds around the ever increasing, incredible numbers. For the S&P is the great and powerful OZ standing behind that curtain currently defined as capitalism.
So many folks seem to believe all we need is a constant expansion of investment followed with ever higher share prices no matter that our economy is on life support via the currency printing press. Capitalism seems to have morphed into something that has no bearing on the original idea of not only free market trade, supply and demand, but the idea that preserving, encouraging, and training national resources such as a highly skilled, educated labor force working in US companies, located within the boundaries defined as the United States of America. Why?
Because national economic health is being defined by investment profits in companies no matter where they are located or who owns them, and their true, current economic condition. That is why we have the stock market totally out of phase with the economic realities of our present day economy. Boeing is a better company today than they were two weeks ago because the AD on MAX has been lifted? Seriously? In two weeks their quality control went up? New management, with new ideas, new US workforce, new customers? Nothing has changed but their stock price increased when FAA gave their blessing. That is economic success?
I believe we really don’t know what capitalism really is. I surely don’t anymore. We want the benefits of investment profits no matter the national cost. As long as the investment leger is expanding, consumerism always expanding, it doesn’t matter where the product is built, nor by whom. Nor does it matter how the greenbacks get into the hands of the consumer. It just matters the consumer remains a consumer. Whatever it takes to the keep the consumer flush enough to be able to spend dollars…no matter where that dollar came from…is all that counts today.
Hi Paul,
Point taken. As I re-read my note, I realize it comes across as an order rather than as a well-intended suggestion. I did not intend to issue a command, as such, and my apologies for coming across that way.
Nevertheless, I know you’re familiar with the teeth-grinding experience of reading an aviation-related article by a journalist who knows nothing of aviation. You know the sort of thing: “the little airplane, an amateur’s experiment, had departed from an uncontrolled airport without authorization from air traffic control. In fact, the pilot had also failed to file a flight plan with the FAA. It fell into a tailspin after hitting an air pocket that caused its engine to stall,” etc., with a comments section full of people calling for a ban on people conducting dangerous flight experiments out of unsupervised airports.
That’s not an impression I’d want to leave, if I were a journalist. But, that gives you a feel for what it’s like, reading this article and comments section.
On the other hand, you and many of your commenters have deep expertise in aviation.
Just saying!
Thanks Jim for your assessment or analysis of capitalism. I too think that, what is going on, is something that is not being controlled by the interests of the people. There are opportunities that can lead to a lot of “wealth” in a very short time and it is in most cases not backed by brick and mortar asseets, like when the first .com bubble burst. One thing though serves as a good sniffing tool. If things don’t make sense, follow the money. I think that applies right now in the biggest possible scale - World Wide, which is actually a war on us the people. One could argue that it is the 3rd or some even say the 4th WW.
Socialism is about the equitable distribution of scarcity.
Capitalism is about the creation of abundance.
The former is about totalitarianism; the latter is about egalitarianism.
The former denies human nature; the latter embraces it.
The latter can be perverted. The former IS perversion.
I still like Paul’s article, and appreciate his willingness to wade in. A major part of OUR problem, though, is not learning more from the Chinese. It’s a simple fact, that if we, as citizens, keep ramping up our pay and costs, our industries are in peril. We need to work more, and complain less. Production is important, profit is important, and our employment costs are out of control. Creating drama in the workplace should not be the goal of any employee. We will lose our way of life if we continue.
Amen!
Big focused investments get a lot of attention, particularly when it seems US investors don’t seem to keep up.
It wouldn’t hurt to remember people spoke similarly about Japan a couple of decades ago when they were buying up US assets. Big Japanese conglomerates had government support through banking and other preferences, but eventually the wasteful political component of all these investments drove the economy into the ground. No one worries about Japan any more.
China resembles and surpasses historical Japan in some ways, particularly government meddling in investments where the wasteful political component is even more pronounced. There are entire cities of empty skyscrapers in China, built with ‘government’ loans, threatening to bring down the real estate sector, 25% of China’s economy.
Governments are big, but not necessarily smart as they couldn’t care less about spending other people’s money. This is true of China, Japan, or our own government. Sooner or later this catches up with them. I wouldn’t look at the situation now and be at all confident about predicting the outcome. Cirrus is the world’s biggest piston aircraft manufacture, but AVIC does not disclose whether or not Cirrus makes money. It may be that China just makes contributions to aircraft purchasers.