1. Distance from Boca Chica:
A failure at ~200–300 miles from the launch site would have placed the rocket over the Texas Gulf Coast , Louisiana , or the Florida Panhandle
What do you base this on? As near as I can tell, the trajectory runs around 250 to 300 miles south of the targets that you quoted - in fact, it looks like a failure at ~200–300 miles would be nicely centered in the Gulf of Mexico. </politics>
How in hell could it even come close? It would have self destructed long before it veered that far off course . . .