Man, that is a narrow launch corridor. If the azimuth varies by just a little bit, they might be sending a few tons of red-hot metal across the length of Cuba.
Hopefully, the Range Safety folks/software are quick on the trigger. Though you wonder if a misaimed shotgun with a pellet load might cause more damage than one with a deer slug.
One thing that occurred to me, looking at this, is how little utility the Starship has…for anything related to Earth science. The available launch azimuths mean the vehicle can’t reach any orbital inclinations that’ll take it above ~35 degrees latitude unless they’re going to spend a LOT of propellant on doglegs.
I’m sure it’ll work fine for Lunar or Mars missions, though.
I agree, Ron. That narrow launch corridor leaves little room for error even a slight azimuth change could send debris across Cuba. Your shotgun analogy nails it-- a scattered spread could cause more unpredictable damage than a concentrated hit.
1. Distance from Boca Chica:
A failure at ~200–300 miles from the launch site would have placed the rocket over the Texas Gulf Coast , Louisiana , or the Florida Panhandle
What do you base this on? As near as I can tell, the trajectory runs around 250 to 300 miles south of the targets that you quoted - in fact, it looks like a failure at ~200–300 miles would be nicely centered in the Gulf of Mexico. </politics>
How in hell could it even come close? It would have self destructed long before it veered that far off course . . .
You’re right to question this, and earlier calculations were off. With Starship’s 92–95° azimuth, a failure 200–300 miles downrange would place it over the Gulf of Mexico, not Alabama or the Panhandle.
However, in a worst-case scenario like a guidance failure or asymmetrical thrust issue, the rocket could veer off course. Even then, the Flight Termination System (FTS) would likely trigger before it posed a serious threat to land.
The earlier Alabama concern was a mistake. Thanks for calling it out.
The Mexican FIR (MMFR Flight Information Region) in the Gulf of Mexico extends from the Mexico-USA border, 3 miles south of Boca Chica, TX, reaching approximately 200 nautical miles from Cuba and southward to the waters of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. This entire area is traditionally recognized as the Gulf of Mexico. Trump can call it the Gulf of Putin, but the region will continue to be recognized internationally as the Gulf of Mexico.
Final point. The Starship Flight 8 incident is a blunt reminder that pushing the limits of science comes with some serious growing pains. SpaceX’s “fail fast fix fast” approach has made big strides, but this explosion showed just how far the fallout can reach, and not just in the engineering sense.
Debris scattered far and wide, from Mexico’s doorstep to Florida’s airspace and all the way to The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the Atlantic Ocean. Even Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic found themselves a little too close for comfort.
Given Starship’s size and the violent breakup at hypersonic speeds, the explosion likely produced thousands of pieces, everything from big engine parts to fist sized chunks to bits no bigger than a bottle cap. Some pieces probably sank quietly into the ocean, while others may have landed in someone’s backyard or front porch.
Innovation is important, but charging ahead at full throttle without tighter safety measures is like playing dice with public safety. Progress is great, but it should not come at the cost of folks on the ground wondering if a chunk of rocket is going to land on their roof.
