I agree, Ron. That narrow launch corridor leaves little room for error even a slight azimuth change could send debris across Cuba. Your shotgun analogy nails it-- a scattered spread could cause more unpredictable damage than a concentrated hit.
The Chinese space launch center is well away from the coasts, and they donât have any troub⌠well, maybe a LITTLE troubleâŚ
One of the oldest sayings in aviation deals with how pilots would have to compensate farmers if they ended up in their fields and damaged crops.
But I guess weâll have to update âbuying the farmâ to âbuying the islandâŚâ Fortunately, Musk can afford it.
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1. Distance from Boca Chica:
A failure at ~200â300 miles from the launch site would have placed the rocket over the Texas Gulf Coast , Louisiana , or the Florida Panhandle
What do you base this on? As near as I can tell, the trajectory runs around 250 to 300 miles south of the targets that you quoted - in fact, it looks like a failure at ~200â300 miles would be nicely centered in the Gulf of Mexico. </politics>
How in hell could it even come close? It would have self destructed long before it veered that far off course . . .
Youâre right to question this, and earlier calculations were off. With Starshipâs 92â95° azimuth, a failure 200â300 miles downrange would place it over the Gulf of Mexico, not Alabama or the Panhandle.
However, in a worst-case scenario like a guidance failure or asymmetrical thrust issue, the rocket could veer off course. Even then, the Flight Termination System (FTS) would likely trigger before it posed a serious threat to land.
The earlier Alabama concern was a mistake. Thanks for calling it out.
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RAF, youâll get in deep doodoo, if you keep referring to the Gulf Of America as the Gulf Of Mexico.
This drives certain people all crackers.
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The Mexican FIR (MMFR Flight Information Region) in the Gulf of Mexico extends from the Mexico-USA border, 3 miles south of Boca Chica, TX, reaching approximately 200 nautical miles from Cuba and southward to the waters of Mexicoâs YucatĂĄn Peninsula. This entire area is traditionally recognized as the Gulf of Mexico. Trump can call it the Gulf of Putin, but the region will continue to be recognized internationally as the Gulf of Mexico.
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Final point. The Starship Flight 8 incident is a blunt reminder that pushing the limits of science comes with some serious growing pains. SpaceXâs âfail fast fix fastâ approach has made big strides, but this explosion showed just how far the fallout can reach, and not just in the engineering sense.
Debris scattered far and wide, from Mexicoâs doorstep to Floridaâs airspace and all the way to The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the Atlantic Ocean. Even Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic found themselves a little too close for comfort.
Given Starshipâs size and the violent breakup at hypersonic speeds, the explosion likely produced thousands of pieces, everything from big engine parts to fist sized chunks to bits no bigger than a bottle cap. Some pieces probably sank quietly into the ocean, while others may have landed in someoneâs backyard or front porch.
Innovation is important, but charging ahead at full throttle without tighter safety measures is like playing dice with public safety. Progress is great, but it should not come at the cost of folks on the ground wondering if a chunk of rocket is going to land on their roof.
Final point.
Would love to know your source for flight-8 debris landing near Mexico.
I get your skepticism, Laminar, and thatâs fair. Boca Chica is about three miles from the U.S. Mexico border, and Starshipâs flight trajectories, with azimuths ranging from 88 to 140 degrees, routinely cross into the Mexican Flight Information Region. Thatâs Mexican airspace, not just open water, and any early-stage failure puts parts of Mexicoâs territory and coastal waters in the potential debris zone.
While the exact explosive force of Starship depends on variables like fuel load, AI based estimates have compared it to roughly 321 MOABs or about 5.27 million pounds of C4. Whether that figure is exact or not, the point is clear, when something that powerful goes wrong, debris doesnât just vanish neatly into the ocean.
Thereâs no confirmed debris in Mexico from Flight 8, but that doesnât mean Mexico dodged the risk. Debris doesnât always land in visible or accessible areas, and luck isnât much of a safety strategy.
The FAAâs scramble during Flight 8, grounding nearly 240 flights and rerouting airborne traffic, wasnât just a routine hiccup. It shows that coordination needs to improve. Better communication with the FAA, Mexicoâs SENEAM, and other air/maritime authorities isnât just a smart move, itâs necessary.
Look, if youâve got better data, Iâm open to hearing it. But dismissing the risk because nothing bad happened this time feels more like a gamble than a solid plan.
Iâm not dismissing risk, merely your baseless claims - as you just noted, you have no data for your recent assertions.
The research and calculations provided are based on AI analysis (ChatGPT), . . .
And the grossly wrong conclusions that you posted show why I do all I can to strip AI from my devices. Screw artificial intelligence; Iâll stick to the real thing (American Mensa member, âFar Westâ Group 9).
AI will be the end of the advancement of human knowledge. I use it for coding issues because it is far faster than hunting through Stack Exchange for hours finding what you need. Now that everyone does that, nothing new is on Stack Exchange and the AI has no more human knowledge to digest and it for sure cannot learn anything on its own.
- and every now and again it makes really stupid errors.
Whatâs the Point?
The explosion of SpaceXâs Starship 8 is a harsh reminder that pushing scientific limits without proper safeguards carries serious risks. While SpaceXâs rapid progress is impressive, its âgo fast, fix it laterâ approach has repeatedly created dangers that cannot be ignored.
The FAA grounded nearly 240 flights and put 40 others in holding patterns for a reason, not for show. That was not some AI glitch, it was a real-world response to a real threat. Pilots were not circling for fun, they were dodging potential debris. Airlines like Delta, United, and JetBlue had to reroute flights, while airports from Florida to Philadelphia faced delays because falling wreckage posed an immediate risk.
Even if no debris from Flight 8 ended up in Mexico, the risk is real. Boca Chica is just three miles from the U.S. Mexico border, and Starshipâs flight paths, with azimuths between 88 and 140 degrees, routinely cross into the Mexican Flight Information Region. That is Mexican airspace, not just open water, and any early-stage failure could send debris right into those areas. Physics and geography make that a fact, not a guess.
Since JoeDB raised the point, yes, AI is not perfect. It makes mistakes, and bad data can lead to bad conclusions. But the FAA did not act on AI guesses, they reacted to real world data and immediate risks. AI is just a tool, like a calculator or weather model, and in this case, it was part of the process, not the reason for the FAAâs actions.
The bottom line is this: SpaceXâs aggressive testing model has already shown its risks. The FAAâs response was not just a âwhat if,â it was a reaction to real world dangers that impacted flights, passengers, and crews. Ignoring those risks because ânothing bad happened this timeâ is not caution, it is gambling with luck, and one day that luck will run out.
This is not about being anti SpaceX or resisting progress, it is about ensuring that bold innovation does not outpace responsibility and safety. Relying on luck is not a strategy, it is a dangerous gamble.
The point is this: Ignoring todayâs risks only invites tomorrowâs disaster, and that is a risk no one can afford to take.
Maybe SpaceX is really just a giant honkinâ super secret Deep State scaled-up chemtrails operationâŚ?
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