Ditto for us in Australia - see my long comment
The free lunch of packing more and more people into the planes has now issued its inevitable bill.
At the same time, we are getting the bill for putting our taxes on labor rather than consumption which has caused all our manufacturing to go to China.
I guess I’m the crazy guy on the hill because no one is discussing this on the news at all.
Good question!
Eric, interesting that you should bring that subject up. In my former life, I consulted with a number of clients on something called business continuity, which is a fancy name for figuring out what things could cause a serious interruption of their business. One of the first questions I asked them was do you have a backup vendor for any materials you need to stay in business. They always said yes, but they never checked to see if the backup was in the same area as the primary. We looked at things like hurricanes and earthquakes, but a pandemic in a particular region would do the same thing. The concentration of manufacturing in China has put American businesses in a very vulnerable position, even if their final assembly takes place within our borders. Just ask the pharmaceutical industry where all their suppliers are located…
Healthy, strong children are petri dishes. Since the beginning of time kids have been killing their grandparents. The older you get the more likely you will contract Pneumonia from any of a thousand viruses, flu, cancer, germs, bacteria or whatever. This one just happens to be more severe. From what I’ve been reading, most folks died within 100 hours after the flu symptoms appeared.
The smart biologist folks need to create a better treatment for Pneumonia. In the end that’s what finally gets us.
Prepare yourself for getting sick and practice good healthy practices. Lots of water, good rest, fresh air, sunshine, no sugar and exercise.
Well, Paul, if you find yourself stuck in the US of A this July, I’m sure there would a number of local pilots willing to foster an Aussie during the quarantine period. Especially if that Aussie brings Fosters. 
Thanks Kirk - Im sure your right. Sadly we heard that QANTAS has canned its new Brisbane - Chicago 787 Direct flights until at least Sept! Its not looking good for this year. I might at least get a credit on flights now that QANTAS has cancelled them and I didn’t.
Fosters hahah - Do you know that Aussies actually don’t drink that anymore. (Fourex XXXX) is very popular with Aussies.
Since 2010 the CDC says 252,000 people died of the flu in the US. The lowest deaths per year was 12,000 in 2011-12 and the highest was 61,000 in 2017-18. So far, the CDC has estimated 12,000 to have died in the US of the flu from 10/2019 to 2/1/20. Covid-19 is a strain of the flu.
The mortality rate for the Spanish Flu of 1918 was 2.4% of those infected which resulted in over 50 million deaths globally over two years. According to the CDC common yearly flu has averaged .14% mortality rates of those infected. So far Covid-19 has had an average of .20% mortality rate of those infected, slightly higher than the average past mortality rate. However, no one is exactly sure how many are infected as many have no or very little symptoms. Many suffer normal flu-like symptoms with out calling a doctor for Covid-19 confirmation.
Since Covid-19 is a new strain, the pharma companies have not been able to concoct a vaccine. Vaccines do not have a 100% guarantee that they prevent the flu. So, we now have a “mystery” virus which makes this strain ripe for massive speculation. Add the social media, internet, and proliferation of keyboard experts and blog posts, the planet has been saturated with misinformation, information, urban myth, and somewhere in the middle of all this, useful facts. But most want someone else to sort all this out and tell them what to do. Many governments have willingly obliged to that desire.
So now, we are hearing the politically correct mantra that in the effort to protect us from ourselves, it is better to error on the side of safety by closing traditionally large gatherings of humanity. Dublin, Ireland has cancelled their traditional St. Patrick’s Day celebration. That will be the politically correct position until the politicians, local communities, states, and countries feel the financial strain ( no pun intended) of lost revenue due to these closings.
Airliners are high flying, aluminum and now composite, disease petri dishes. They always have been flying science projects. Cruise ships are floating versions of sickness science projects. Trams, trains, subways, and buses are equal opportunity sickness providers. UBER has added an additional mystery opportunity by offering rides in cars ( which themselves are highly capable of infection) operated by even more folks of unknown pedigree, national origin, past travel history, etc. Shopping malls, truck stops, airports, restaurants, bars,etc are ripe for disease opportunities…and always have been.
The only way to avoid getting sick from one or all of these forms of travel, large gatherings, and lifestyle choices is to not participate, stay at home, no work, no play, and develop some sort of household quarantine. What is unique in this situation is the opportunity for mass hysteria because of instant access to anyone and everyone’s connected sneezes. This makes it an ideal opportunity to affect global finances in an previously unprecedented way.
Now, we are faced with serious personal decisions regarding when, where, and how we go to future aviation events. Those choices will have a huge affect on aviation business, local, regional, and national economies. I have participated as an exhibitor at many of these aviation events and the cost of participation is not something to be taken lightly. In many cases money has been spent well in advance of these events making cancellations costly with a likelihood of no reimbursement. Then is dealing with the domino affect that will inevitably happen as a result of Aero 2020/Friedrichshafen rescheduling or eventual cancellation.
These decisions are not light, clear cut, nor without some risk. The question is, how much increased risk are we potentially exposed to in relation to normal life. While we all have opinions, and it is easy to postulate from our collective computers exercising keyboard courage, at some point, everyone of us aviation nuts will have to weigh all this information and misinformation and make a decision to participate or not in traditional aviation events we have grown accustom attending. Likewise, it will be a tough decision for exhibitors who are counting on our attendance. For me, I will be attending.
It should be a very interesting business year for aviation. This Covid-19 flu may very well be a mortal wound for many aviation companies if their business depends on good attendance figures at these respective shows. Airlines are already sitting in a very precarious position with some folding. Many, many aviation businesses count on us aviation consumers at these traditional events.
Aviation is not a business or hobby that easily translates to internet sales. The 3D world is unique with most of us wanting an opportunity to see in person, the company, products, and services that we depend on when we strap in, start up, and launch into the “wild blue”. We want to feel or size up these people, products and services in person. Flying is very personal. Flying and associated aviation as a whole is a unique shared passion that no other endeavor is quite like. It is an acquired taste which cannot be exactly duplicated or substituted. That is why we want to commiserate with like minded, equally infected ( again no pun intended) others because it is so special. Oshkosh for example probably has the largest percentage of active pilots in the world attending. Considering how few pilots are in relationship to the US population or especially the global population, Oshkosh has demographics unique to just about any other job, passion, recreation, or hobby in its ability to gather those who are globally active. And those attendees are the one’s spending their hard earned money on aviation products and services. These are not folks content to satisfy their aviation urges sitting in front of a computer screen. Virtual reality is not a replacement for real flying. Soon, it will be decision time for all of us.
COVID-19 is not a strain of flu (influenza) virus. COVID-19 is caused by a newly discovered virus called the novel 2019 coronavirus. Both viruses cause infectious respiratory illness and they have other similarities in their symptoms, transmission, treatment, etc., but they are not strains of the same virus. The flu can be caused by a number of different types and strains of influenza virus, while COVID-19 is caused only by the novel 2019 coronavirus.
For a good overview on the similarities and differences between the two viruses, check out the following link:
Covid-19 is not a strain of the flu. It’s an entirely new version of the corona-type virus first identified in the 1960s and a new disease. Flu is caused by evolutions of RNA-type viruses. Both are respiratory infections, however. It progresses differently, too. As James mentioned above, it appear to be biphasic, which basically means you feel better, then you get worse again.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-coronavirus-different-than-influenza-can-be-contained/
I tried that, Raf … but I passed out.
You bring up two very salient points, Eric. Just the other day I mailed myself on a low cost carrier and within four feet of my personal location were nearly a dozen people … any one of which could have been sick.
And the notion of a World Economic solution is now coming back to bite us. There are SO many things that you’d love to buy saying ‘Hecho en US’ yet it’s impossible anymore.
Raids on hand sanitizer and toilet paper notwithstanding, I don’t see the reactions to the virus spread as blind panic. The precautions being taken in the face of the unknown actually are pretty reasonable and all the people I talk with seem to understand that this is a problem that has a finite timeframe. When you lack data in the face of a unknown problem we all tend to fall back on generalized philosophies and adages and the one I hear over and over is “better safe than sorry”. That’s actually a philosophy that we in the aviation community (hopefully) practice every time we fly, or chose not to.
Granted, there will be a huge monetary impact and some deep soul-searching about concentrating most of the world’s manufacturing capability in one region, but, except for probably the cruise ship industry, things will bounce back pretty quickly. My wife and I are already eying the discounts being offered by airlines and hotels for when the all-clear is sounded.
Health is more important than wealth. It’s only money…
I agree with you 100% Paul. Erring on the side of caution until we all (the whole world, not just the US) gets a hold on this situation. Better safe than sorry, especially our older population, which (as much as we don’t like to admit it…) is the predominant one in GA here.
Agree!
The virus probably came in with the staff, or in the deliveries from food service, or other supplies, and the younger people were not affected. There will always be a certain percentage of the population who will be exposed to a given disease but will not exhibit symptoms. As Klaus says, kids are transmitters in a huge way. Teachers will likely get anything and everything that happens to be going around, flu shot or not.
Covid-19 indeed is NOT a strain of the flu virus. It is as Paul and others pointed out a new strain of the coronavirus. Both are virus’s with similar symptoms yet individual characteristics.
In the article referenced by Paul, the question yet to be answered is whether Covid-19 can be contained? The WHO seems to think, at this point, Covid-19 has a chance of being contained rather than the flu which cannot.
While we wait and see daily developments, large event organizers are really stuck in a unique position with making the hard decision to cancel or continue as planned. Cancel large, traditional events, playing it safe losing the combined revenue benefits for the county, state, nationally, and the individual companies who participate? Or continue with the event with as much disease prevention policies as practically possible? If they continue the event but few show, was it worth it? If the event does succeed in bringing in the traditional numbers and a huge spike in Covid-19 infections result, it opens the door for all sorts of potential issues.
Covid-19 places all of us in a unique decision-making dilemma. There is no precedence helping us to make a decision. I believe, way down deep inside, many of us want others to make the event cancellation decision relieving us of that responsibility. If the event goes on as planned, then we have to make the personal decision to participate or not. That is not easy when it involves something we really like to do, have traditionally done and look forward year after year, or job requires attendance.
Flying is all about daily, hourly, and minute risk assessment in an effort to maintain situational awareness which ultimately manifests itself into constant and a continuous series of decisions. Over time, it can be almost seamless. Living life is always a balance of all of the above, in a general sense. Covid-19 is forcing us us to seriously consider a gut check that we normally have not been subjected to.
“I believe, way down deep inside, many of us want others to make the event cancellation decision relieving us of that responsibility.”
I felt exactly that way yesterday. Today, no. I’m starting personal social distancing because the U.S. policy response to this is woefully behind. Not to really scare the hell out of you, but here’s some recent reporting that might change your mind. I hope this guy is completely off his rocker. But I somehow think he isn’t.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
You wrote: “So far Covid-19 has had an average of .20% mortality rate of those infected, slightly higher than the average past mortality rate.”
I don’t know where your numbers come from, but of this moment, there are 121,564 confirmed cases world-wide, with 4,373 deaths reported. This is a 3.6% mortality rate (not 0.20%), which is much higher than the Spanish Flu of 1918 – and that after 100+ years in medical and other technological advances.
The problem is, that if 48 million people would be infected (400 times as many as the currently confirmed cases and about the number of annual flu victims in the USA alone), you would have to expect 1.75 million dead (compared to about 65,000 flu victims, if the same number were infected.)
Everything is relative, and when the chance of dying from COVID-19 is more than 25 times higher than for dying from the flu, it seems sensible to pay more attention to it and to be extra careful. Especially when it seems to spread faster than the flu, when left unchecked.
We know how many people have died after a positive diagnosis. This number is the numerator in the mortality fraction.
We do NOT know how many people have been infected with the virus. That number is the denominator in the mortality fraction.
Without a reliable denominator, we simply do not - cannot - know the rate of mortality of this new virus.