John, If you think its offside to discuss probable cause or root cause before the final report is issued, thats fine, move on. If you believe you have something value added to share, by all means state your case intelligently. I don’t share an opinion of probable cause when there are no facts. In this case there are a lot of facts and the crew executed a high risk choice.
I am making a case for any crew of a multi engine aircraft that hits birds on final approach must FLY the plane to the runway. If you disagree, then add your point of view to the discussion. I am a humble soul and invite challenges.
This sort of discussion may influence a pilots future thinking / decision making today: FLY the plane to the runway when in similar circumstances. Most of us only pay attention in the immediate aftermath, not a year or two later when the final report is issued.
Is there a possibility the crew initiated the go around and then immediately hit birds? Yes, a possibility.
Is there a possibility they hit birds, initiated a go around and hit more birds? Yes. Why does a pilot think evasive maneuvers are appropriate when faced with birds in the windscreen at 500ft on short final at between 1.3 stall speed? Pilots in these circumstances must focus on flying the plane to the runway.
The aircraft was at 498 ft and 161 knots when the recorders and ADS-b quit on short final 1.2 nautical (2 kms) from the runway threshold. The mayday call was made 6 seconds later.
The gear and flaps were clearly configured for landing based on a photo of the accident plane on final approach.
Where was the gear and flaps position when the FDR stopped recording at 498’ at 161 knots 1.2 nm from the runway? We don’t know yet.
Does it really matter? Probably not, because the point is for pilots to be conditioned to FLY the plane after bird strikes or with birds filling the windshield, on short final to the runway.
We don’t know when the TOGO was activated and was it one click (80% power) or two clicks (100% power), when a positive rate climb was called out, (which requires a few seconds to establish), a call is made to raise the gear, after the gear is up, or after the selection, the call for flaps setting for the go around. All memory items.
Does it matter?
Was it “bird strikes before TOGO” or “TOGO then bird strikes”? Or both.
Does it matter for this discussion today?
There is a altitude vs rate of descent/ climb graph available for the final approach until the FDR lost power. We know the plane was set up to land, so when did that change?
Gear selected up? etc . We don’t know but it doesn’t really matter to my point.
When the final report is issued, this crash by then will long be forgotten and people won’t pay it a glance and we won’t see an opportunity or interest for memorable discussions.
A test;
- When on the road faced with a deer suddenly in front of you do you take the ditch or go through the deer knowing its likely your car or truck will be damaged or written off?
- Do you take the squirrel or take the ditch?
- Do you take the gopher or take the ditch?
- Do you take the bunny or take the ditch?
- Question 1 but with a moose? That one I’d probably take the ditch.