Paul, and everyone above.
Thank you for a thoughtful piece followed by well thought out, positive comments. This is the AvWeb we all know and love.
I had a long response typed out, but an accidental key-press deleted it…
I agree with you that the actual mortality rate is much lower than being reported (and perhaps significantly less, since people are only being testing after exhibiting multiple symptoms), but the mortality rate isn’t actually the problem. The problem is that no one has any natural immunity to it and it is apparently very contagious, so even if it had the exact same hospitalization rate of the flu, it can (and in fact does) overwhelm our healthcare system.
So until either a vaccine or treatment can be developed, the only way to keep our healthcare system from collapsing is to prevent the spread of the virus by keeping our distance from each other. And that is obviously rather unworkable at a big event like AirVenture.
Great article. EAA made the right choice. You made the right choice to support their decision. Thanks
Mark, many things are known about this virus and knowledge is improving daily. Among the things still unknown is the seasonal or lack of seasonal behavior of the virus. Breakouts in Australia and elsewhere south of the equator during their summer season should signal everyone to be cautious about any assumption that this will die away as we approach summer. It may not behave at all like the flu. Additionally, Airventure depends upon hundreds of volunteers who need to start showing up right about now in order to perform those functions essential to preparing the fairgrounds for the big event. The majority of those volunteers are retirees, seniors in the age group the virus has had the greatest adverse impact upon. Preparation for Airventure also requires a significant financial outlay by EAA. If the recent loosening of restrictions in many states results in a strong rebound of COVID-19 viral infections the restrictions on travel, social distancing, and banning of large public events could be imposed again, sending that money right down the drain. All things considered I think the decision by EAA management to cancel was a prudent one and I congratulate them for having made it in time for all of us to rethink our summer activities.
Hi Paul:
It is impossible to know what is the right call. It is almost unbearable that you have to make the last paragraph a reminder to be civil and productive. In the last years, we seem to have forgotten that we are all Americans and all love aviation. President Trump is a cause, but it started before he was elected, and it seems like everyone can’t be calm and courteous. Shame on us.
Good article, as usual.
Best
Vince Massimini
Kentmorr Airpark, MD (3W3)
One issue may be the higher proportion of attendees at Oshkosh in the >65 age group, most at risk of covid19
I applaud Jack for making a difficult decision, and choosing to support public health. I have one family member who would almost certainly die of COVID-19 (age + compromised immune system), and appreciate efforts to keep her and others healthy.
A lot of folks seem to forget that slowing the spread of the virus isn’t just about death rates, but also about reducing the numbers of those needing hospitalization. I certainly want to be able to receive emergency care if needed. Folks with a blase attitude towards the virus would probably change their tune if they were turned away from an emergency room in dire need.
“Here in the USA, anyone that dies from any cause gets tested.“
Actually, that’s not true. This is not a “CSI” TV show. Each state has their own criteria of what tests to run and when. Generally, only if a person dies for unknown reasons or under suspicious circumstances is some higher level of post-mortem exam run to determine the cause of death.
Plus, there is no one “test” that can determine a cause of death. A test for Covid-19 will not tell you they actually died of the flu, and vice-versa. No state has the resources to run hundreds of individual tests on every man, woman, and child who passes away.
In the case of Covid-19, there are not enough tests available so they’re reserved for the living. In NYC in particular, anyone who died at-home was not tested for Covid-19. This means the death rate due to Covid-19 is being under-reported.
Now, many of those “at home” deaths were people that would’ve died “at home” anyway (old age, heart attack, stroke, etc.) But even if you subtract the known Covid-19 fatalities, the overall death rate in NYC is several times higher than normal. Which means a lot of those “at home” deaths were due to Covid-19 but were not counted.
Ignorance kills. The old codger vs. young person rate at OSH is pretty steep; I’m one of the former. Over 100K will be dead of this, probably 125K, in the US alone. That makes 9/11 and, indeed, the Vietnam war, look mighty tame.
And you are all for crowds. Yay, you.
Considering that there are not FDA-approved antibody tests in the U.S., and the FDA only recently clamped down on the number of garbage tests out there, I would take any survey of antibody test results with a grain of salt.
A pilot shortage? No other reason(s)? Like, high cost of flying? Supply chain problems? (Maintenance.) Govt & Central Bank caused inflation, so that even if ticket costs weren’t up, hardly anyone has the disposable income to fly? Etc.
I observed a rush-to-the-bottom of the barrel of new “pilots” at my last job as a sim instructor/examiner. Kids showing up with epaulets and black ties whose most recent automation learning experience was the electric-windows in the taxicab taking them to the airport. Have you ever witnessed a stall-recovery-technique such as punching the “Engage” button on the autopilot? I have.
Soo… who wants to fly behind the new-hires?
The article says the airline industry is expecting an increase in passengers, despite the increase in fares. And I believe that, because I’ve seen more cars on the road than I have in the past 2 years, despite the increase in gasoline prices. People seem determined to not waste this summer this year.
You always see these articles, pilot shortage, pilot shortage, pilot shortage yet NO ONE covers the mechanic shortage at all. The maintenance shortage is FAR worse than the pilot shortage by far. I can not find any mechanics for our business. When I am at the IA seminar renewals each year, over 80% of the IA;s in attendance are over the age of 50. Once they have enought pilots they will be all sitting at the gate waiting on maintenance.
George H. and Ronnie S. - that is downright scary. As my homebuilt nears completion, it seems “Timing is everything” is the operative truism, at least for me. Flying commercial has less and less to like about it, and that trend doesn’t seem to be letting up.
What is worse is being a Captain flying with one of those “rush to the bottom of the barrel” FO’s. I hate having to train a new FO, student and private pilot items that should have been learned before getting to the Commercial or ATP level.
The regional model as practiced in the US is slowly dying a slow death. The alleged pilot “shortage”, which is really a money shortage is driving those with any smarts to the mainline airlines where they get real wages. Others are just getting fed up and either leaving the industry or not getting into aviation to start with. All you have to do is read some of the postings on a lot of the pilot and aviation forums.
Tnx. What a trade group expects, and what is Reality are two different things. (Remember we were told that “Inflation will be ‘transitory’”?) And a return to what once was is not growth. I’ll wait to see what happens.
In the meantime, as it goes to car travel, I was trying to listen for the usual Triple-A reports about expected Holiday Travel over the Memorial Day weekend. If they had any, I missed them. But my personal experience, taking a quick (flying) vacation to Oceano (California) (L52) was that Memorial Day was a bust. Hardly any pilots flew in to the airport campground. The local county campground next to the airport campground was vacant. Hwy 1 was unusually traffic free. My favorite Restaurant was empty Tuesday. In fact, I was forced to overnight in the resort town of Big Bear later that week (due to a problem with the plane). Despite the start of “Summer Vacation,” I was able to obtain a room, for cheap. And the local eateries all had closed by 7 pm, apparently for lack of business. (So I had to order a medium sized Domino’s pizza for $30 after tip. THAT is not going to last.)
And not only mechanics, but part shortages/inflation. While waiting in line at the gas pump at an XC airport, another aircraft ran into my rudder. The Flight School that I rent from was able to borrow a rudder off of another plane and flew it out (along with a mechanic) for a quick swap to get me home.
In the process, I heard the talk of prices for used rudders. What used to be a $3000 part is now a $7000 part.
Assuming that the airlines are similarly affected, this does not bode well for anyone.
Soon, the airlines and the planes will be fully automatic. There will be no need for pilots because the auto pilots will be doing all the work and making all the decisions. Robots will roam the aisles keeping unruly passengers in their seats and if need be, in restraints. The important person left standing will be the aircraft mechanic.
Some folk were never destined to be college graduates. Some of them are even destined to guide the plough. There are times that someone has to learn the trade of plumbing or carpentry or electrician. The airlines, and the robots, are not going anywhere without some good aircraft mechanics.