The WHO statistics are garbage based on bad information as they are missing the vast majority of the mild/no symptom cases in the denominator. For confirming “facts” of this, see the latest population wide antibody tests of NY and CA. The fatal rate is somewhere lower than 1%. And, ‘fact’, most of that >1% is made up of people with preexisting conditions (age, over-weight, diabetes, or other chronic health problems)
Still a bad deal, but not the end of the world as we used to know it. There was a time when all of us got the flu for the first time, and since we are still here, survived it. For those folks with preexisting conditions, it is good to be careful. For me it is good citizenship to use caution to not be a “typhoid Mary”. I am not overly worried , because we will all eventually be exposed, and I do not have preexisting conditions.
As for the EAA I am tired of people throwing “money” out as a pejorative somehow evil motivation. You have obviously never had to make payroll or fund the operations of an enterprise. I for one am happy to see EAA financially successful so they can continue to provide the programs and content I love to consume. That includes Airventure. I also don’t see how Airventure could have gone forward in the current climate of fear and politics. A real shame.
I will renew and be back in 2021!
I disagree that we should cancel the open air AirAdventure… I understand the pressure from the political winds… But, it’s an individual choice to go or not and Oshkosh is perfect for social distancing… It’ll set the air show back for years to come…
FYI: I fly professionally and take my temperature twice a day… I had hotel reservations and was planning on attending as long as I wasn’t indicating any illness…
Gotta agree it was a tough call. The problem with these kinds of decisions is that if you are careful, and nothing happens, everyone says it was not needed. If you are not careful, and lots of people get sick, you’ll have contributed to unnecessary death.
If the event was just a lot of people going of their own free will, with absolutely no impact on other people, my libertarian instincts say “let them do it”. The reality is that a lot of the people that work there will lose their job if they don’t go. A lot of businesses would be forced to go even if they don’t want to due to competitive pressure. The people traveling there who will get infected by someone will then come in contact with others when they travel or return home.
If we can just get the testing right, we can get back to “normal” quickly - without info, we can’t really make wise decisions. Imagine if Boeing kept flying the 737Max with no data about why they were crashing…once they got the data they understood what was needed.
We need to put the pressure on the “leaders” to get more testing done, and this just requires a lot of $$$.
Based on US infection/death counts, the death rate is 5%, an exponential amount greater than flu deaths. This is not the flu; the burden to the health care system is 1,000 times greater than the flu. The month to month annual death comparison reveal the huge burden of Covid-19. Same with hospitalization rates. It is real; not chicken little.
My apologies. I was in no way trying to bring in politics. EAA does an outstanding job and they/we celebrate our freedom to build, fly, and manage the underlying real risks that comes with it. People like me look forward to all the hardships and risks and costs just to head into insanely busy airspace and land on a green dot. That non-essential flying makes it all worth while. It will be sorely missed this year.
Without 100% testing of the U.S. population, it is literally impossible to calculate a mortality rate; however, the estimates keep dropping as more testing is actually being done. No widespread testing along with the wrongfully reporting of causes of death generates unreasonably high statistics. 10% becomes 5% becomes 0.5% with time. I live in Houston and hospitals and the health care system is actually under-burdened all this time.
There are two choices. 1. We can cower and wait for a vaccine while the economy and our freedoms go away and become more difficult to recover each day. OR 2. We stop being afraid of getting sick and protect those most vulnerable while letting nature immunize the herd and eliminate the virus as nature intended. The decision to cancel Oshkosh falls in the first choice and does nothing to help our long term prospects of getting back to the American way of life and prosperity. As a thought, We could lower the national speed limit to a max of 30 mph and make one heck of a dent in the deaths and maiming injuries each year, but what would that do to our economy? We chose to let life roll and accept the bad with the good. Needless to say, I’m very disappointing with the EAA.
Thank you Jack Pelton along with the EAA board for making this tough decision. I will renew my membership with enthusiasm looking forward to 2021 with high hopes.
It is a rare to see decisive leadership especially in a situation with still so many unknowns, a situation still evolving, and so much at stake. Decisive leadership is a rare commodity these days. It’s a pleasure to see it displayed, even when that tough decision affects me personally financially , employment wise, and passionately just because I like airplanes. That is the kind of leadership combined with the hardworking volunteerism of the EAA I can whole hardheartedly support.
I, like many, renew my membership at Oshkosh. Sort of a yearly ritual, I look forward to. It would be easier to do it online…which I will be doing this year. But I enjoy the interaction with the volunteers. It is one of the last really personal public venues. And the EAA, year after year, has made these personal engagements a reminder of the importance, the value of engaging each other eyeball to eyeball, heart to heart, invariably with a smile.
No amount of online technology will replace that personal contact. Airplanes, aviation, and flying requires so much trust in other folks when you really think about it. It’s nice to get an idea who you are dealing with. Oshkosh allows many of us to solidify deals, investigate new technology, appreciate individual craftsmanship, attention to detail, witness the results of dogged determination, while getting to know the giants of aviation down to the backyard innovator. I will sorely miss those experiences this year. But will be ready to give and receive a double dose of handshakes, hugs , and smiles next year.
EAA President Jack Pelton stated the basis for his decision to cancel AirVenture Oshkosh 2020:
"As your leader, I see no clear path to meet our own requirements to insure the health and safety expectations our organization demands for our employees, members, volunteers, exhibitors and attendees. That includes sanitization, separation and personal protection requirements.
My conclusion is, like in any good flight planning, don’t take the risk. Therefore, I have no choice but to cancel AirVenture 2020" (Pelton, 2020).
There is no need to assume anything about his decision. Mr. Pelton provided reasons supporting his decision, which are objectively based on science and fact. I invite you to review his decision on the EAA website.
Further protestation despite evidence to the contrary points to bias beyond the reach of reason.
Without UNIVERSAL testing, we simply cannot KNOW the death rate. Every fraction needs a denominator.
Among those tested AND found to be positive, (66,263 U.S. cases, as of this morning), there have been 3,846 deaths ATTRIBUTED to COVID-19. That works out to a 5.86% fatality rate.
Studies suggest that the actual number of positives is 8 to 10 times the number of confirmed cases. Is this is true, then the actual mortality rate would be well under 1%.
Totally agree, Paul. Some Wisconsinites feel that Pelton took a swipe at our governor, ostensibly placing some of the blame for the cancellation on his social distancing orders. For my part, I think Pelton did not really intend it that way. However, he would have saved himself–and EAA–some unnecessary rancor by just sticking with the facts with which we’re all familiar: COVID-19 is a potentially deadly enemy, and we don’t know enough about it to dismiss it lightly.
I am looking forward to next year. Maybe it will be less of a mob scene because of the restrictions on crowds and we can hark back to the days when size and money were not the main focus of the organizers. Yes I am an old timer who has been going to Oshkosh on and off for the past forty five years.
The picture of Airventure going forward in July against the backdrop of all major sports being cancelled, the Olympics postponed, concerts, schools, businesses etc. mostly shut down would have been the only reason I would cancel my lifetime membership with EAA.
That said, I was planning my own airventure to two more MLB ballparks this summer in the plane - Target field, home of the Twins, and Busch stadium in St. Louis. Flying to all 29(?) ballparks is the eventual goal, trying to do two or three a year.
Oh well, I’ll just kick back, overplan for next year and watch a game on…s#!t
Mark: Neither Paul nor anyone on here thus far characterized the decision as brave or courageous, even though there is a reasonable argument that it qualifies.
Paul wrote that it was a tough (as in difficult or gut wrenching) decision and you assume much to say that the decision was based on money. Of course money played a role (it always does) but if you don’t believe that other considerations, such as the safety and well being of thousands of attendees and exhibitors didn’t enter into the equation, then apparently you place a low value on human life and health.
“There is zero evidence that this year will be different. None. Nada.”
“…the organization… has succumbed to the irrational.”
Such comments are worthy of Internet Troll Hall of Fame status – they themselves are irrational. And absurd. And flat out wrong.
Pelton did the right thing. That said, it could have been handled better.
EAA has fantastic Publications and Public Relations departments. A listing of timelines and problems with continuing with the show would help people understand the decision (nearly 5000 volunteers have to get started by May, wristbands ordered, airshow acts booked, provisions for attendance or cancellations by vendors made, NUMEROUS CONTRACTS signed (police, traffic control, FAA staffing, right down to the Porta-Potties)–AND budgets modeled and a business plan developed. Given the facts behind the decision, I believe it would be more widely accepted.
SECOND–what do do in the absence of the live show? Again, EAA has perhaps the best Publications and PR department in the industry. Years ago, founder Paul Poberezny realized that this had to be a “bottom-up” organization–not run from the top. His solution was to create “chapters.” EAA has the ABILITY (some might say responsibility) to “push down” the big airshow with chapter activities–led and fed by material from EAA HQ. Activities, videos, forums, tutorials, airshow, featured vendors–all could be supplied by EAA and used either at Chapter meetings or online. All that is missing is the person-to-person contact with friends in the industry.
Would this cost money? Yes–and no. EAA has a vast storehouse of material to work with–GET IT OUT THERE! They have a fantastic magazine (better than the long-established aviation magazines) and the talent to use it.
With the several months to prepare for a “video Oshkosh”–they could accomplish this. Is it as good as being there in person? No–but we can’t all be there in person anyway–and with attendance up every year, they are reaching the limit on how many they can accommodate at the show. The effects of the virus may have an effect on large public gatherings for several years–but with the alternate accommodations at the ready, they would be ready for almost any eventuality.