Santa Fe county here. I sense your pain.
As published by the CDC, adults between 65 and 84 who have been confirmed to have COVID 19,
between 31% and 59% have been hospitalized, between 11% and 31% have been admitted to intensive care, between 4% and 11% have died.
My wife and I are both over 65 with no pre-existing conditions, or, at least none that we are aware of.
Until and after a vaccine is found, we choose to let nature take its course. I am not going to jeopardize my children’s, or, grandchildren’s future to burden them with saving my ass, or, anybody else’s for that matter regardless of age. We will be prudent in making decisions with regard to our health just as we have every year with all of the other viruses that are floating around out there. I am not going to place the burden of my health on society. I will take care of myself, wife and family the way I have, we have for years.
To Paul’s original question, yes, many smaller events would definitely be a smart move. AOPA has been successful doing the same with their “Fly Inns” strategically held throughout the country. Be safe out there.
Truth be told, I attended a fly-in last weekend. It was great. Lots of aircraft to look at, good people to talk to and a couple of pilots did mini airshows but nothing that would require waivers and or anything like that. The people at the fly-in didn’t seem to be overly concerned although people did keep distance there was no coughing of sneezing. Not a mask insight. There was even some handshaking but I didn’t participate in that. Will we find out someone has corona virus in 22 days? Maybe. Will anybody die from it? According to the data, active pilots have more probability of being killed in an aircraft accident. Spread of the virus is essentially a random event. As Paul continually states about flying, it’s all about risk management.
Cure the people and the wellness of the economy will follow. BTW: The mere suggestion of allowing a person to die without medical or other intervention as a remedy to a healthy economy is inhuman.
'Will we find out someone has corona virus in 22 days? Maybe. Will anybody die from it? ’
You meant to say ‘one of us’ instead of ‘someone’ and ‘anybody’, right?..
And if you die or a loved one dies or you gave the virus to one of the ‘great unmasked’ at the event and they die…or suffer greatly for the rest of your or their life with one of the devastating effects of this deadly disease…or you or they transmit the virus to a child and they suffer a heart condition for the rest of their lives…
but no worries, right, all were participants in sustained, aggressive testing for the virus all the days surrounding the event and day of. And the sustained, multiple testing was reliable.
THEN you have properly considered risk management (because you or someone still could have been asymptomatic) and the airshow ‘fun!’ during a pandemic without a vaccine was well worth it.
That’s right Dave. Now you’re on board. It’s about time someone saw the light.
Well, Tom, thank you, I appreciate the welcome. Not wanting to sound ungrateful, but I need you to do me a solid and have me expelled, because that light looks a lot like an oncoming train to me. Please hurry 
In my logical and rational opinion, the absolutely most unfortunate thing about this whole COVID-19 fiasco is that the incredible losses in our country and others, both in human life and insurmountable (and probably unrecoverable) financial damage, never needed to happen AT ALL. As usual, the responses of our government entities, and those of other countries, were extremely ineffective and mostly just plain wrong. The “cure”, which has not been proven to be a cure at all, has been far worse than the disease.
We have known, virtually from the very beginning, that those primarily at the greatest risk were the very young, very old, those who already had respiratory problems, and those with compromised immune systems. What SHOULD have happened was to STRONGLY recommend, and even legally mandate, quarantine and isolation of those people who were in these highest-risk categories.
If this had been done, those most at risk would have been much more protected from possible infection, and a large percentage of the resultant deaths prevented. Further, there would have been no need to virtually shut down and destroy our entire economy, creating unfathomable damage to innumerable businesses, our workforce, our children’s education, and to our country as a whole, from which we may never recover.
As usual, the “powers that be”, in this case our elected officials, handled this crisis just about as poorly as could possibly have been imagined in our worst nightmares. Will this terrible dynamic ever change???
Michael I don’t dispute some of what you say, but there is as yet no cure for this virus which invalidates your contention that the “cure has been far worse than the disease”. You are referring no doubt to prevention measures which were to lower the number of infected people and the infection rate curves so that among other things adequate amounts of hospital equipment would be available for those who need them. The medical profession was and remains agreed on the effectiveness of those protective measure which have been taken.
We don’t trust our non-professional aviator passengers to fly our airplanes, why should we trust non-professional “medical expert” opinion? What our elected officials did and continue in many cases to do wrong is to not trust the medical profession and to not take the virus and its unknowns seriously beginning in January with the first intelligent agencies’ briefings. Politicians taking this virus seriously early on would have produced a different economic outcome.
Here’s another take.
COVID QUESTIONS.
To date:
Cases 1,556,000
Recovered 294,795
Deaths 92,098
- Of the 1.55 million cases how many are pilots?
- How many pilots have recovered?
- Then, out of the recovered, how many have scarred lungs limiting their flying privileges?
- How many pilots have died because of the covid.
- Will the FAA disqualify pilots from flight duties.
- Will the FAA require COVID studies.
- Will the FAA grant waivers or special issuance.
- Will the FAA Guide for Aviation Medical Examiners, establish that any degree of the COVID is disqualifying for all classes of medical certification?
Sadly, this COVID is a serious, extensive and complicated medical condition. It will open a can of worms.
?:male_sign: ok Dave. I understand…
I’d be VERY surprised if the FAA took any action against the medical certificates of recovered COVID-19 airmen or ATC specialists. Many endemic diseases in the US can cause serious, lasting lung damage including Valley Fever, Brucellosis and a host of others. The FAA has never included any of these in its medical questionnaire. If it did, the form would be pages long and the agency would need to provide respondents with a medical dictionary.
If, on the other hand, a significant number of recovered certificate holders suffer organ damage that legitimately compromises their ability to safely exercise their privileges, then you are right and the FAA will take action. I don’t believe either will happen but I’m not going to say you are wrong at this point.
So 1,169,107 people (U.S.) still have the disease? That comprises 75% of the entire case history. Doesn’t sound right…
Kim, my first flight was out of an airport in Chula Vista CA, I was 9 years old then. It was in an Aeronca Champ and the 20 minute flight stuck. I wanted to be a pilot. Then Viet Nam came along where I was in airmobile ops as an infantryman. Loved it. I started flight school as soon as I returned stateside. That was 54 years ago. My passion for aviation flourished over the years. I enjoy and wish to share this passion like forever, or at least for a few more years. My life has been good in this wonderful world of aviation. But, if I’m going to die, it better not be because someone coughed on me. Therefore, I’ll remain on guard against the COVID, avoid crowded places, not go to mass gatherings, and stay about 6 feet from others. That said, I will not attend, nor will I recommend attending mini AirVentures, I’ll wait for healthier times. It’s bad enough going to the store.
On the FAA and the COVID - Que Sera Sera!
YARS:
“Confirmed cases” include persons with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection.
“Recovered cases” are those who were hospitalized due to a severe COVID-19 infection.
The rest, 1.2 million, may be “mild cases” in the healing process or recovered. Documentation here appears to be deficient as many recovered cases go unreported due to the lack of requirements for healthcare providers to report.
Raf,
It seems we are about the same age and we’ve had very similar life experiences (I lucked out and served in Germany). For what it’s worth, I agree 100% we should be following CDC guidelines - for ourselves, our families and for the welfare of everyone we come in contact with.
AVweb’s poll “Would You Attend a Small Airshow” is instructive. I’m blessed with the gift of being able to enjoy a hobby airplane and flying in solitude.
Yikes! “Let nature take its course.” And “My rights are are being violated.” Sounds to me like the Darwinian approach to a once in a century pandemic.
And I had hoped to see a 21st century response.
I seem to remember at age 19 giving up all my rights to protect American values and safety. That included consecutive 26 months of deployment. Today’s generation of hovering parents and grandparents are dependent on a dwindling resource of young folk able and willing to protect the way life they had.
5/21/2020…Source worldometers.info
In the US…1,629,176 confirmed Covid-19 cases
481,036 confirmed closed cases…meaning the Covid-19 patient either recovered and/or discharged from the hospital or died…
384,269 recovered/discharged (80%)
96,767 died (20%)
1,148,140 confirmed open Covid-19 cases as of 5/21/2020
Total tests performed…13,636,063
Tests performed per 1 million of the population…41,196 4.1% of the population tested
Highest test rate per 1 million population is Rhode Island with 120,015 tests. Total cases…13,736 Active cases 12,073 Closed cases 1,663 Deaths 579 (35% of all closed cases resulting in death) Percentage of population tested 12%
Lowest test rate per 1 million population is Idaho with 22,026. Total cases …2,534 Active cases 1,078
Closed cases…1,453…deaths 77 (5.3% of all closed cases resulting in death) Percentage of population tested 2.2%
New York…Total cases 366,357 Active cases …274,341 Closed cases…92,016 Deaths…28,885
( 31.2% of all closed cases resulting in death) Percentage of the population tested 8.5%
Alaska…Total cases 402 Active cases…36 Closed cases…366 Deaths…10 (2.7% of all closed cases resulting in death) Percentage of population tested 5.5%
The vast amount of Covid-19 cases have yet to be closed. So far, of the closed cases 20% have died. Since we have only tested 4.1% of the population with already 97,000 deaths due to Covid-19 and 1,148,140 cases still active, with 20K+ new cases added per day, is it wise to open up the country based on constitutional decisions rather than the evidence the numbers are providing?
I would like to see the country open it’s economy as soon as possible. However, with only 4.1% tested, with virtually all 4.1% tested being administered to symptomatic patients, how do you effectively open the economy?
Without knowing the infection rate through consistent, aggressive, multiple testing, including those who had or have the virus yet asymptomatic ( but highly contagious), I don’t see an efficient, economical, and safe way of setting logical parameters of opening areas least effected by Covid-19 while taking considerably different measures for other areas devastated by this pandemic. Seems like this country is simply gonna open up because of sheer frustration of an essential initial lockdown, adding needlessly to the death rate with deadly consequences extending for a long time as a result. Hindsight, which always sees with 20/20 vision, will not be kind to those who are making these decisions being made on emotional frustration, political and peer pressure rather, than evidence based on known numbers. And by the end of May, over 100,000 less voters to voice their opinions in this continuing catastrophe.
Based on all of the lawsuits and the businesses and livelihoods shutdown, and those who are defying those orders, the next election cycle where state and local officials are elected (or possibly re-elected) should be interesting.