Just finished digging out big chunks of lead out the spark plugs on my O 235. The radial engine in my Nanchang has a minimum octane requirement of 70, so my take on 94UL which is 100LL without any lead is; HeLL yah bring it on!
But, I get the issue with the big bore turbo engines.
The biggest danger for those engines may not be government actually getting around to outlawing lead, it is the ONLY plant in the world that now makes TEL has a fire, blows up or just goes bankrupt. 30 days later there will be no 100LL full stop.
Either a supply chain failure or government regulation means 100LL is gone. As a general comment hard niche problems generally get fixed with the easiest solution, so that would be all existing refineries switch to 94UL, which would be easy.
Bottom line sadly is GA is subject to a quadruple whammy on this:
-
Avgas is so low volume it is not even classified as a fuel by the oil companies, it is a specialty chemical. So minimal consequences for oil companies if it is outlawed
-
Politicians know GA is not a big enough voting block to have consequences if they hurt them
-
There is basically no “ safe “ level for particulate lead in the environment
-
There is no easy drop in replacement for TEL. All of the other possible additives have significant issues
There is no possible happy ending here for any owner of an aircraft that can only burn 100LL