Agree 100%.
On another note, I think the woodwork is leaking, because they are all coming out. I am ducking now…
“Looks like?”
Call me blind. Then show me some real evidence; not supposition.
Yesterday, a sleepy politician called for “increased hospital capacity.”
Here in thePeoples Republik, our fearless leaders have been REDUCING hospital capacity -deliberately - for the last decade. In an effort to constrain cost increases. Really.
Turn on a dime? It takes a minimum of three YEARS to build an ADDITION to a hospital in Massschusetts.
Meanwhile, the local Big Medicine hospital featured 9-hour wait times in its E.R. - BEFORE this Covid-19 fiasco befell us.
We’re about to get a painful lesson regarding the dark side of just-in-time logistics.
Pass the hand soap, please.
As of my writing, 13 March, 14:45 Zulu, in the US there have been 1,701 confirmed cases and 40 deaths.
I’m curious if anyone will be tracking the confirmed jobs lost and suicides as a result of financial ruin, isolation, and pandemic fear? I imagine the result will be far higher than the Chinese flu.
Thank you Jim H.
As with 9-11, the “cure” is certain to be worse than the disease. How far we are today in America from FDR’s “all we have to fear is fear itself”.
Well, one thing is for sure, Vince. If Lites doesn’t cancel SnF, it oughta be easier to find a barstool at Jimmy Buffet’s bar outside the food court.
Exactly my point on my earlier post. We are still dealing with the government’s “cure” after 9/11, especially aviation. Who knows what this latest overblown “cure” will do, or the lasting unnecessary damage done to our economy. As far as I am concerned giving up personal freedoms guaranteed by the US Constitution as long as I am not showing symptoms is not an option. More people die from auto accidents or the flu and no one panics over that.
Spot on, Paul. Flatten the curve. Thank you for writing this.
Scheduled transport aviation (e.g. US Part 121 carriage) is incredibly safe. One major reason is that it gathers evidence, learns from it how to make things safer, then takes those actions. Another major reason is a safety culture that values admitting mistakes and near misses so that others can learn from it. Another major reason is regulation that enforces applying safety lessons even when it drives up costs.
Contrast this with how the US administration has been responding to the COVID-19 epidemic.
@Larry S, you ask, ‘Blaming “national leadership and political will” is much akin to blaming the mythical “they.” What the heck are you talking about here? Get specific … just WHO are you talking about and just WHAT would you have them do (or have done earlier)’?
Here’s one specific action. Around May 2018, John Bolton, National Security Advisor appointed by Donald Trump, pushed out Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and eliminated the global health security team he oversaw. That left the White House without anyone focused solely on global health security. That team was not rebuilt. “Health security is very fragmented, with many different agencies,” said J. Stephen Morrison, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It means coordination and direction from the White House is terribly important. ” (Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/) Bolton and Trump and the administration a) could have not broken up that capability, and b) could have rebuilt it.
There are plenty of other examples — but this is an aviation blog.
I’m sorry that you’re upset with my criticism of U.S. government actions on this outbeak. It’s goes with my job. You asked specifically where the shortfall was.
The first case of Covid-19–wasn’t even called that then–appeared in the U.S. on January 15th. By February 22, there were 35, by February 28th, there were 119, by March 6, there were 200, on March 11, there were 696. Now there are over 1200. Yet on February 28th, President Trump in a press conference said U.S. cases “are going very substantially down, not up.” That’s a quote from the press conference at a moment when it was abundantly clear the exponential contagion was already established and his CDC staffers were telling him that. They said so at the press conference.
The actual number of cases is suspected of being much higher because the roll out of testing has been a fiasco. The U.S. rejected the WHO-derived kit, made its own and wasted 10 days discovering it didn’t work. Now, nearly two months after the first U.S. case, the president has a press conference just today announcing accelerated testing. Yet he said on Monday, anyone who wanted a test could get one. This was not true.
We’ve tested about 11,000 in the U.S. In Korea, whose deployment we are just now copying, can do up to 20,000 a day and have done more than 230,000. The tests are critical because they provide the data to marshall limited resources in coping with the outbreak. This is primary governmental function.
By comparison, during the swine flu outbreak of 2009, 17 days after the genome was sequenced, the first test kits were shipped in volume through a collaboration of institutions and agencies. So CDC knows how to do this. Why they didn’t do it here represents a governmental failure and a big one. I don’t care who was responsible for this, I care that it gets fixed and avoided the next time.
As for the current panic, it’s fashionable to blame the press for this. Be my guest. But if it weren’t for aggressive reporting, all you’d know is what the president tweets. All these cancellations you’re seeing are people waking up to the fact that this is a serious pandemic and they understand they have a part in stopping it through social distancing. This is another governmental failure, just as it was in Italy, where the message to isolate was just too unpalatable until the situation spun out of control, where it remains today.
People are leading themselves. The government is trying to catch up.
I have absolutely no problem with personal proactivity in the matter and – in fact – you’ve jacked me up a bit over it. In that regard, you did good. I have cleaner hands than I’ve had in a while. Now I can dig a Cadillac out without fear. But now I’m PO’ed that I won’t get to see SnF this year (I’ll be gone). I saw your initial blog as attacking the President without due cause.
My issue is with blaming the President for everything from soup to nuts on a timeline that – by your definition and my like research last nite – is pretty short. I defy EVERYONE in this blog to be as energetic as he. Whether you like or hate him (seems like a lot of folks fall into the later group here), he’s trying. I wonder what the people flapping their typing fingers here would do if THEY were suddenly living in his shoes. He’s NOT an MD; He has to depend upon medical advice from his staff, et al. For a time, they were the Keystone Kops personified and yet most of 'em have “PhD” after their names. We’re blaming him for advice that may not have been as good as it should. Just today I heard how long everyone’s Messiah took to act back in 2009. It was much worse but no one complained. I remember it distinctly because I was on a trans-oceanic cruise to UK then.
I’m going to start becoming proactive in questioning just exactly what the Mission Statements for all those medical organizations are, what their budgets are, and why we weren’t prepared. If THEY can’t do better … we need to cut their funding massively. I’m going to take that up as a new raison d’etra.
Others can say or believe anything they want … it is my opinion that all those alphabet soup agencies are partly to blame over his lack of timely reactions to the matter. As I said here, it’s much akin to the bomb shelters in the 50’s and 60’s. When that big siren went off and you knew it was ~30 min to your shelter or oblivion, it was too late to start digging a hole. “Duck and Cover” was not going to work. THOSE people should have recognized and acted upon some of the issues discussed here even in advance of CV19. If they needed HIS help … they know how to find him.
As you know, I am a retired military man. During my almost 21 years, I learned to fall in line behind the Sr NCO’s and Officers whether I liked 'em or not. When I became a Sr NCO, I demanded strict accountability and rewarded those who worked with me proactively. Sass me and you’d be in deep doodoo. Opportunities to challenge orders were there but mostly you performed to your directions. It peeps me off when everyone from here to there are second guessing a guy who is more energetic than any 40 year old I know. Just an hour ago, I listed to some fool ‘journalist’ trying to trip him up after he acknowledged her for a question. He finally had to cut her off. PART of his job is to assuage the masses … not scare the crap out of 'em. Had he done that, the folks here would then be moaning about that, too. The guy just can’t catch a break IMHO. And THAT is what riled me up. I wonder what Plugs or Bernie would be doing … and in ya’ll’s hearts of hearts … you know the answer.
You ARE correct in saying that we’re all in this together but I’d then ask … how many people died in car accidents since Jan 1? Likely ~ 6,000. How many died of drug overdoses? How many died of suicide. We’re over reacting here IMHO. Acting proactively is smart and good. But recognize that the timeline was insanely short.
CUT THIS PRESIDENT SOME SLACK!
I find it amusing reading the post here on a supposedly Aviation Blog, how so many self proclaimed experts in such things as medical, political and administration expound their expert opinion in feint concern when they really are only interested in relieving their pent up TDS hatred. I have spent many hours in the cockpit and I am not surprised at all the expert opinions, nor am I impressed with those opinions. Monday morning quarter backs always make the touchdown pass, or in aviation, clear sky investigations make it easy to see what happened and ask why did he/ she do that. Stick to aviation folks, I’m sure you will sound smarter and just might make a contribution instead of parroting what you read.
Fred, you’ve got your head screwed on straight and you know what time it is (I’m sure you don’t me to tell you). Your description is the reality of how this all works (or in this case, does not work).
It’s not Monday morning quarterbacking to point out that we’re still in the first half and the quarterback is throwing interceptions, fumbling on the easiest of running plays, and getting sacked consistently because he didn’t study the playbook and his hand-picked linemen, backs, and receivers are third-string benchwarmers.
As you can see, Tom, your quest is hopeless.
It’s Monday morning quarterbacking unless you have been in the game and I am pretty much up on my history and I don recognize your name on the list of US Presidents. Did I miss one? But the main point is, this is, or at least I thought was an aviation site. If not I guess I should just move on, I’m not interested in another Trump bashing site full of liberal rambling.
Looks like it…
I have some big news for all you’se boys here. “Tom S” above is the guy who taught me that when you pull back on the stick and push forward on the throttle, the houses get smaller … 49 years ago at a USAF Base in northern CA. He’s a great guy who probably forgot more about aviation than all the rest of us here ever knew? And, I’m here to tell you that he’s pretty darned good at wheeling an Airbus 330 around the world!
Tom is a retired Captain who last flew the A330 internationally and has well over 25K hours. We were last together during the 2009 swine flu pandemic returning to the US. He tells me that as a senior Captain, they were never made aware of much of anything officially during that subset pandemic of the 1918-19 Spanish flu problem. Why? Because the (then) President wanted his ObamaCare Act to pass so the media and all the talking heads zipped up their pie holes and negative comments for the most part. Everyone THEN didn’t have much to say about it all. But NOW – in just over two months – everyone is attacking the current President because he shoulda done this and he shoulda done that and yada, yada yada. To those of us on the Right … it’s getting mighty, MIGHTY old. I don’t think anyone here could put up with the attacks he has and yet still do the job. I’m certain of it.
Tom is trying to point out that the – I’ll say it – Trump Derangement Syndrome stands out in many of the comments here. If you lean that way, you’d have no problem with it. If you don’t – as we don’t – you’d have a major problem with it. If the blog had stayed on point … i.e. “AVIATION AND COMMUNITY RESPONSIBILITY” without intimating that the President didn’t do his job, it woulda been fine. But even in the blog itself there was negative connotations and off point intimations … which set me off early with comment #1. For Jim D … I call your attention to the fact that President Trump took on John Bolton and then fired him. And … during the early time of this CV-19 problem, he was dealing with bogus impeachment issues. Frankly, if it were me, I’d tell ya’ll to stick it where the sun don’t shine and move on to living a normal life.
Example: Raf (a guy I like and respect for what he’s doing for Coachella Valley, CA kids) said:
“Dr. Trump and the WH’s Center of political disorders bullied and silenced the CDC’s staff including Dr. Fauci.” Oh really How did he do that? When did he do that? And why did you couch it that way, Raf? How’s about if I badmouthed the CVYAP kids … how would that feel to you? Seems to me that the good Dr Fauci’s puss along with many others has been on TV and in the Congress day on day. But you can say what you said, get away with it and others agree and then we’re off and running bad mouthing the President. Give it a rest people. He’s the President and … YA’ll ain’t. If you think you can do better, the left is in dire need of someone good to run this fall. Toss your hat into the ring. Who knows? President Paul B has a nice ring to it.
We COULD be in deep doo-doo over this virus issue, at least short term. Are we – as pilots of every kind and experience – going to do OUR part to keep it from happening in our world here (you know, the Community) or digress into bad mouthing the most energetic President I’ve ever seen in my seven decades clomping around the planet. See my point.
Paul, you made some good – no, excellent – points vis-à-vis the CV-19 virus and what “we” aviators can do to help ourselves AND “the herd.” Stick to it. Watch what and how you write because there’s a whole hoard of us out here – myself included – who think you’re the greatest aviation writer since Orville and Wilbur wrote to the Smithsonian. (And you ain’t too bad at videography, either). Act like it and think twice before you push the button. YOU are the leader here are WE are your minnions. Most of us go too far once in a while but lets not let it become the normal MO. I can get that crap from CNN or MSNBC or the ladies at noon. You GET respect when you GIVE respect. I learned that early on as a senior NCO in the USAF. You get more done when you lead a group than when you try to push 'em uphill.
Years ago, you reeled ME in for calling a certain person “Mikey.” (I have a LONG memory!) Now I’m reeling YOU in for similar reasons. Let’s call it a draw. PLEASE!
Now then … it’s time for me to crawl back into the woodwork before Joe P hollers at me. Besides, I gotta find out if any Ancient Aliens have invaded the planet today anyways.
Thanks Paul. Aviating has taught me a very good thing: Identify undeniable facts and plan ruthlessly around them. From last light to fuel state to fatigue levels. And the human factors … turning back early or saying “no” on the ground is often the best plan, along with trusting the decision making and not second-guessing.
The ventilator issue and the limits of “cohorting” the very ill are hard numbers and it’s been great seeing the talk in recent days about keeping the rates of infection down. Working backwards from the facts and thinking big picture. Good stuff. Facebook has been a source of useful gossip for a change!
There is an excellent rundown on medium dot com.
Despite the improved safety-net aspects of most governments, we’ve generally gotten into a coffin corner in recent decades. More fear of upsetting business, more reliance on just-in-time supply chains, then the slide away from open government and honest communication. Disenfranchisement used to just be the longest word I remember from school - now we’re living it. Trump and his ecosystem are going to get a lot of people killed sadly but they’re also symptoms of something we’ve allowed to slide for a long time. It’s on all of us in the end even though none of us are specifically to blame. Maybe this is the reminder we needed that what we each do actually matters. My hygiene decisions will affect people I don’t know.
Larry I don’t know you but please, now is not the time for hyperventilating. We’re all worried. This virus is not the only harmful and contagious thing going around right now.
Oops, just followed your links and saw you’ve linked to the Medium article - thanks!