Risk has 2 elements, likelihood and consequence, while quoted statistics imply likelihood hasn’t changed, all the tolerances are lining up on the consequences side. Do the statistics on incursions/incidents break out technical violations vs “OMG” moments?
Having watched a minor system performance statistical variance consequence explode in front of me, with aircraft/crew loss, and then riding thru the same issue two weeks later (with no consequence), I am less tolerant to “lightning doesn’t strike twice”…don’t blame lightning if the root cause is complacency/stupidity.
Hopefully reminding people that stupid has a consequence will be sufficient…and the worst we endure is another movie like “1941”.