In may past experience as an airport manager, as well as operating a full service FBO, the 80/20 rule applied to aircraft flying is very accurate. Primarily, 80% of the flying is accomplished by 20% of the airplanes. To develop and maintain profitability as an FBO, one has to identify and go after the 20% who fly their airplanes regularly.
If there are 100 airplanes based at the local airport, there are 65-75 of them in annual. 25-35 are not. Rounding out the number to 70 airplanes legally available for flight, 14 (20%) will be flown regularly accumulating on an average, 100-200 hours per year. But the remaining 56 will be lucky if they see 10-25 hours per year of wind underneath their wings. We maintained several airplanes whose only time they were started was during the following annual never flown in between. Plus, a significant portion of the GA fleet gets pencil whipped annuals, especially those flown sporadically.
I am not an advocate of more regulations nor government meddling in my personal affairs. However, using the present method the FAA uses to determine fleet hour flown is highly flawed, and is a guesstimate at best. While applying the 100,000 hour formula to statistically attempt leveling the playing field of actual accident data, it does not accurately apply those stats as it relates to everyday pilot proficiency nor mechanical causes.
For example, the airplanes flown 100-200+ hours per year are highly reliable. Pilots who fly them are highly proficient. Airplanes flown 10-25 hours per year, are maintenance headaches, with the constant debate between owner and maintenance facility regarding continually deferred maintenance. Throw in the pencil whipped annuals by the roving/mobile IA who performs 3-5 " annuals" in an afternoon that the local FBO never has access to or an opportunity for. Now safety has a perfect storm for lack of use, deferred maintenance, and poor pilot proficiency. And the largest number of so-called active GA airplanes, new or old, fall into the 80% category. Owner flown LSA’s statistics gleaned from aircraft ads and used aircraft sales show most of the fleet is flying only 10-20 hours per year.
I believe each airplane owner needs to report to the FAA, as recorded in the aircraft records, hours that particular airplane has flown annually. In addition, yearly pilot flight time needs to be reported to the FAA. I have seen pilots who flew regularly someone elses spam-can airplane, or commercial bizjet regularly and safely, but have not had time for a variety of reasons to fly their own. Many times these airplanes are high performance, experimentals, or antiques like a Staggerwing, Stearman, LSA, or modern tailwheel airplanes that normally require much higher stick and rudder skills. If they have an accident in one of those airplanes but are flying mostly common airplanes more regularly, proficiency numbers would not be accurate. Proficient in the boss’s CJ5 does not mean proficient in the family Luscombe or Swift.
If the flying community supplied yearly accumulated flight times and each airplane reported hours flown on that particular airframe, accident investigations would be simplified and causes much more clearly defined. Insurance requires airframe time and yearly flying hours. We are giving that data to the insurance companies, why not the FAA?
I believe those two stats would present much more accurate data regarding pilot errors, proficiency, and maintenance contributions to accidents. In addition, there would be accurate data reflecting the variety of economic drivers that increase or decrease flying activity.
We lost 64% of our fuel sales in the last quarter of 2008’s economic meltdown. Every FBO in our region reported similar declines. Rental hours dropped similarly. Several regular customers did not have their airplane’s annualed when due. Many airplanes sat for an additional six months to a year, before the next annual was performed. Covid-19 is making a similar contribution. However, under current statistical guesstimates based on flawed and often optimistic flying estimates, we will not be able to learn the affects of Covid until 2022-23. 2017-18 Nall reports are helpful, but certainly very difficult to accurately spot trends related to a current, long lasting, worldwide pandemic. It’s sort of closing the proverbial barn door long after the cows have been gone.
If GA aircraft ownership and flying was steady no matter what the economic and political landscape, then maybe we can get good stats using the present method. But my participation in GA has not shown any one year predictable of the next. But it is undeniable when it comes to aircraft maintenance or flying proficiency, use it or loose it.