I would expect an increase in the statistical accident rates for part 91 flying in 2020. Not because of many more accidents, but fewer flying hours. Such is the nature of statistical analysis using small numbers. Larry does have a point in that a large number of accidents are caused by people doing dumb things, often in spite of knowing better. Flying shares that problem with driving cars. If we could get rid of the people overloading planes, ignoring weather forecasts, running out of fuel or flying defective airplanes, we could get a lot closer to zero. Just like if we could stop drunk driving, people watching their cell phones instead of the road, or other similar activities, the highway death rate would drop. Unfortunately, neither one is likely to happen.