Accident Probe: Preflight, Interrupted - AVweb

The examination that a cap was off the left tank means one of 2 things:

  1. that ~30 gallons of fuel drained out UPWARDS in mere seconds and that the pilot had lightning good emergency decision skills to recognize the problem and fast reflexes to switch to the right tank or…
  2. he took off on a near-empty right tank, it sucked air when the plane pitched up, and his first reaction was to turn back instead of switch tanks and the post crash fire was from the ~30 gallons and no fuel cap.

Tell me which sounds “probable” based on the information?