“If you can see where this is going, let me know. I have no idea and I don’t think anyone else does, either. No one knows if the majors or minors will stay in the leaded avgas business to the bitter end, whether they’ll sign on for licensed production of G100 or Swift’s 100R, if it graduates from development, or if UL94 has legs in the market if 100-octane gains a foothold relatively soon.”
The market is responding to a very confused end user. Just look at the responses on this thread plus the recent unleaded avgas poll. Some pilots, aircraft owners, and many mechanics swear they can determine “engine damage” in aircraft engines that use non-ethanol auto-gas or mogas. That “engine damage” is never clearly defined. But they swear non-ethanol autogas or mogas is causing some sort of engine anomaly, wear patterns, with their intuition saying it is not good. Sort of an aviation urban myth. No one knows where the myth started. But by gosh, non-ethanol autogas is no good for airplane engines. The hell with the Peterson STC or EAA STC, it don’t matter how exhausting and strenuous the test(s), no matter the accumulated data over the past four decades, non-ethanol/unleaded auto fuel or mogas is no good. Period!
Then there are those like myself, who has been using non-ethanol auto fuel for a long time ( 15 years in two personally owned airplanes) along with dozens of other fellow aircraft owners, who have clean oil, no fouled plugs, clean valve guides, much cleaner valve seats resulting in much improved compression ratios, lower oil consumption, consistent mag checks, easier starting hot or cold, and averaging $1-2.00 less per gallon fuel costs. The total aircraft engine improvements make it very worthwhile to do whatever is necessary to use non-ethanol autogas, purchased locally from a variety of self-serve stations including Walmart. Yes, not quite as convenient as the local self-serve avgas dispenser. The upside is I don’t have to deal with the nuances of the avgas dispenser that seems to have a mind of its own with no guarantee it will dispense today as it might have a week before. Cross county flights take more planning. But for me, a 20-50 NM diversion for mogas still makes it worthwhile. As both an A&P, an aircraft owner using unleaded, non-ethanol auto fuel over a long time, I still have never convinced the naysayers described above of its virtues. Apparently, the long term testimonies from the EU also do not count to these people either.
Then we have the third end users who are listening to the debate like spectators viewing a tennis match from the sidelines near the net. They watch the volley’s between the folks who swear mogas is no good and those who are successfully using the same for decades, being mostly renters who fly airplanes having no choice in what fuel is in the tanks. All they know or want assurance of is the engine run properly throughout the flight. Whatever morning sickness or mag roughness will be fixed by a mechanic. Their hourly rates have not changed no matter what is in the tanks. So why get up in a lather over the debate or invest themselves in learning the science to make more educated fuel decisions. In a practical sense, they have no choice.
The last group is the engine manufacturers. They have a potential liability problem, according to their lawyers, type certificates, the FAA, and many of their engineers. So, they are the last ones to give any kind of blessing using non-ethanol auto fuel, mogas, Swift, Gami, or anybody else’s fuel outside of 100LL avgas. This provides much cannon fodder for the group that swears anything short of 100LL is causing engine damage, adds confusion to group three watching the debate, and frustrating the hell out of those who have been using it for decades. Hence" If you can see where this is going, let me know. I have no idea and I don’t think anyone else does, either."
That leaves the manufacturers of avgas having to guess who will be their most loyal customers will be. No doubt they are keeping an eye out for companies like Swift or GAMI while raising the proverbial finger into the air to see how those competitors financial winds are blowing combined with a distant curiosity to watch their investment into the infrastructure in their attempt to broaden their distribution. All of them know how to make unleaded mogas and non-ethanol auto fuel. Its just a matter of deciding when it is time to join the party or spoil it.
Personally, I will not discontinue use of my local Walmart’s 91 octane non-ethanol auto fuel especially if my unleaded alternative will be as expensive or more so that avgas. If my airport will stock mogas that is less expensive than 100LL, I will happily use it. I already seek and use airports that have made that investment. But as long as general aviation is as fractured as it is, I see no wide implementation of unleaded fuel for a long time.
When the manufacturing of new airplanes and their engines out pace the use and eventual destruction of the 66-70% of the present 40-80 year old airplanes that can already use mogas, that is when the debate will be settled. But that means 100LL will be required by the big inch Continental and Lycoming owners because I don’t see those engine manufacturers willing to invest in making those engines work on anything less than 100LL. By that time, the aircraft ranks will have shrunk so much that there will be no financial reason to continue production. The EPA, average non GA flying citizens, and aviation clueless politicians already look at any privately owned airplane as an extravagance. Extravagance and “green” don’t mix.
At my age, I have no fear of losing 100LL. I chose to own airplanes that run excellent on readily available non-ethanol auto fuel. That was a driving reason why I bought what I did. I have a solution that is “green”, less expensive, and far better for my engine. It is readily available. And my airplane performs as well or better than the million dollar airplanes that cannot fly without 100LL.
So, I will let the battle for a “green” fuel be fought by the 200-400 per year new Cirrus owners, the remaining used Cirrus owners, the Lycoming owners who cannot gain an auto fuel STC, Swift, and GAMI. Plenty of potential room for two fuels. However, I see no end to the confusion nor the debate.
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