Fast-Doc
It appears it is at least possible that this was an accident and not a failure of the crew, or the poor executive who committed suicide.
It appears it is at least possible that this was an accident and not a failure of the crew, or the poor executive who committed suicide.
I have constructed a root cause based on what happened on approach up to the decision to go around. I am not bound by the discipline required of the TSB teams, but at the same time we know a lot can go wrong when we declare an emergency on short final and choose a go around with the runway a mile away.
“Pilot Error: After bird strikes (unknown number), while configured for landing on final approach with a stable approach, crew failed to continue the approach. FLYING the aircraft to the runway ….sans QRH / emergency procedures given the phase of flight. They were 500’ and 2 km from the runway threshold at 161 knots.
The decision to go around may have been influenced by a crew decision to prioritize the QRH checklist actions or to avoid another looming bird conflict.
That shows poor critical thinking, likely associated with lack of pilot conditioning in the sim to “FLY to the runway” if on final and configured to land after or during bird strikes.
Everything that happened after the decision to go around became “collateral” including the fatalities. Figuring out the collateral is going to be for the record. Consequences of a decision to fly away from a runway during an emergency.
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What you really should have said Captain Kirk is that your lack of hesitation to comment without facts lead you to wild speculation.
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If you declare and emergency and an airport is right in front of you, land.
If you declare and emergency and an airport is right in front of you and you decide to pull up and keep it in the air, then it was not an emergency.
John, If you think its offside to discuss probable cause or root cause before the final report is issued, thats fine, move on. If you believe you have something value added to share, by all means state your case intelligently. I don’t share an opinion of probable cause when there are no facts. In this case there are a lot of facts and the crew executed a high risk choice.
I am making a case for any crew of a multi engine aircraft that hits birds on final approach must FLY the plane to the runway. If you disagree, then add your point of view to the discussion. I am a humble soul and invite challenges.
This sort of discussion may influence a pilots future thinking / decision making today: FLY the plane to the runway when in similar circumstances. Most of us only pay attention in the immediate aftermath, not a year or two later when the final report is issued.
Is there a possibility the crew initiated the go around and then immediately hit birds? Yes, a possibility.
Is there a possibility they hit birds, initiated a go around and hit more birds? Yes. Why does a pilot think evasive maneuvers are appropriate when faced with birds in the windscreen at 500ft on short final at between 1.3 stall speed? Pilots in these circumstances must focus on flying the plane to the runway.
The aircraft was at 498 ft and 161 knots when the recorders and ADS-b quit on short final 1.2 nautical (2 kms) from the runway threshold. The mayday call was made 6 seconds later.
The gear and flaps were clearly configured for landing based on a photo of the accident plane on final approach.
Where was the gear and flaps position when the FDR stopped recording at 498’ at 161 knots 1.2 nm from the runway? We don’t know yet.
Does it really matter? Probably not, because the point is for pilots to be conditioned to FLY the plane after bird strikes or with birds filling the windshield, on short final to the runway.
We don’t know when the TOGO was activated and was it one click (80% power) or two clicks (100% power), when a positive rate climb was called out, (which requires a few seconds to establish), a call is made to raise the gear, after the gear is up, or after the selection, the call for flaps setting for the go around. All memory items.
Does it matter?
Was it “bird strikes before TOGO” or “TOGO then bird strikes”? Or both.
Does it matter for this discussion today?
There is a altitude vs rate of descent/ climb graph available for the final approach until the FDR lost power. We know the plane was set up to land, so when did that change?
Gear selected up? etc . We don’t know but it doesn’t really matter to my point.
When the final report is issued, this crash by then will long be forgotten and people won’t pay it a glance and we won’t see an opportunity or interest for memorable discussions.
A test;
Not choosing to fly the plane to the runway is the “probable cause”, a learning moment for all pilots.
For the facts I suggest you watch Blancolirio or Taking Off or Pilot Debrief on Youtube.